Manchester City W vs Arsenal W preview and prediction
The match
Arsenal W travel to Manchester Regional Arena in the FA WSL on Sunday 4 October (16:30 WAT) to face Manchester City W. Manchester City W are 1st with 25 points from 9 games (top of the table), while Arsenal W sit 6th on 13 points (in the top half). A gap of 12 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Manchester City W's last 5: DWDWW Most recently they drew with Real Madrid W 1–1 at home. At home they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. They are scoring freely – 2.5 goals a game.
Arsenal W's last 5: DLWDD Most recently they drew with Paris FC W 2–2 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Manchester City W arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.3 points a game against 1.5.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.3 for Manchester City W and 1.2 for Arsenal W. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 46%, both teams to score at 57%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Manchester City W 43%, draw 22%, Arsenal W 35%.
Both teams to score: yes (57%) at 1.62.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 57% chance at odds of 1.62. Predicted score: Manchester City W 1–1 Arsenal W. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Manchester City W43%fair 2.31 · @2.40
Draw22%fair 4.53 · @3.10
Arsenal W35%fair 2.89 · @2.62
2.50Expected goals
1.34Manchester City W xG
1.16Arsenal W xG
57%Both score
46%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–011%
0–110%
2–19%
0–08%
1–27%
From our goals model: Manchester City W 1.3 – 1.2 Arsenal W expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Manchester City W to win✓
43%
2.31
2.40
Double chance
Either team to win✓
78%
1.28
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
57%
1.76
1.62
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
71%
1.40
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
54%
1.84
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
76%
1.32
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
44%
2.27
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Manchester City W / FT Manchester City W✗
24%
4.21
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
11%
9.09
–
Form
Manchester City W – last 6
DWDWWW
1 Oct
vs Real Madrid W
1–1
D
26 Sep
@ Charlton Athletic W
1–0
W
22 Sep
@ Bayern Munich W
2–2
D
18 Sep
vs Liverpool W
4–2
W
13 Sep
@ Aston Villa W
4–1
W
6 Sep
vs Birmingham City W
3–1
W
2.5Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Arsenal W – last 6
DLWDDW
30 Sep
@ Paris FC W
2–2
D
27 Sep
@ Chelsea W
0–1
L
22 Sep
vs Køge W
1–0
W
19 Sep
vs Manchester United W
1–1
D
13 Sep
vs Crystal Palace W
0–0
D
6 Sep
@ Brighton W
1–0
W
0.8Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Manchester City W and Arsenal W.
What is the prediction for Manchester City W vs Arsenal W?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 57% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.62.
Who will win Manchester City W vs Arsenal W?
On our numbers Manchester City W have a 43% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Arsenal W 35%.
How many goals will there be in Manchester City W vs Arsenal W?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Manchester City W vs Arsenal W?
Our predicted score is Manchester City W 1–1 Arsenal W, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Manchester City W vs Arsenal W?
Manchester City W vs Arsenal W (FA WSL) kicks off on Sunday 4 October 2026 at 16:30 (West Africa Time) at Manchester Regional Arena.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
