Value bet: Motherwell to win @ 1.72 – our chance 62% vs 58% implied by the price (edge +6%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultMotherwell to win ✓62% · @1.72
Double chanceMotherwell or draw ✓86% · @1.15
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗57% · @1.73
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓76% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗12% · fair 8.33
Motherwell vs HJK Helsinki preview and prediction
The match
Motherwell host HJK Helsinki in the UEFA Europa Conference League on Thursday 13 August, with kick-off at 19:30 (WAT) at Fir Park.
Form guide
Motherwell's last 5: DDWWW Most recently they drew with Falkirk 0–0 at home. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.8 scored and 1.0 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
HJK Helsinki's last 5: WDLWW Most recently they beat AC Oulu 1–0 away. On the road they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.8 scored and 0.7 conceded. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 6 August 2026, finished HJK Helsinki 1–1 Motherwell.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.8 goals: 2.0 for Motherwell and 0.8 for HJK Helsinki. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 52%, both teams to score at 57%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Motherwell 62%, draw 24%, HJK Helsinki 14%.
Safer route: Motherwell or draw (86%) at 1.15.
Both teams to score: yes (57%) at 1.73.
Value angle: Motherwell to win at 1.72 – 62% on our numbers against 58% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 76% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Motherwell 2–0 HJK Helsinki. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Motherwell62%fair 1.62 · @1.72
Draw24%fair 4.09 · @3.65
HJK Helsinki14%fair 7.30 · @4.30
2.79Expected goals
1.95Motherwell xG
0.84HJK Helsinki xG
57%Both score
52%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–012%
2–012%
1–110%
2–110%
3–08%
3–16%
From our goals model: Motherwell 2.0 – 0.8 HJK Helsinki expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Motherwell vs HJK Helsinki?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Motherwell vs HJK Helsinki?
On our numbers Motherwell have a 62% chance of winning, the draw 24% and HJK Helsinki 14%.
How many goals will there be in Motherwell vs HJK Helsinki?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 52% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Motherwell vs HJK Helsinki?
Our predicted score is Motherwell 2–0 HJK Helsinki, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Motherwell vs HJK Helsinki?
Motherwell vs HJK Helsinki (UEFA Europa Conference League) kicks off on Thursday 13 August 2026 at 19:30 (West Africa Time) at Fir Park.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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