AS Marsa host ES Sahel in the Ligue 1 on Saturday 12 September, with kick-off at 16:00 (WAT) at Abdelaziz Chtioui Stadium. AS Marsa are 11th with 6 points from 6 games (in the bottom half), while ES Sahel sit 10th on 8 points (in the bottom half). Only 2 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
AS Marsa's last 5: LDLDW Most recently they lost to ES Tunis 1–2 away. They average 1.0 scored and 1.0 conceded.
ES Sahel's last 5: DWLLL Most recently they drew with Jeunesse Sportive Omrane 1–1 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 4 of their last 4. They average 1.2 scored and 2.2 conceded.
AS Marsa arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.3 points a game against 0.7.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.3 goals: 0.9 for AS Marsa and 1.4 for ES Sahel. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 41%, both teams to score at 51%.
Betting angles
Win chances: AS Marsa 27%, draw 24%, ES Sahel 48%.
Both teams to score: yes (51%) at 2.10.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 51% chance at odds of 2.10, above our fair price of 1.96, so there is value in it. Predicted score: AS Marsa 1–1 ES Sahel. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
AS Marsa27%fair 3.65 · @3.40
Draw24%fair 4.13 · @2.75
ES Sahel48%fair 2.07 · @2.20
2.33Expected goals
0.95AS Marsa xG
1.38ES Sahel xG
51%Both score
41%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–113%
1–113%
0–010%
0–29%
1–09%
1–29%
From our goals model: AS Marsa 0.9 – 1.4 ES Sahel expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
ES Sahel to win✗
48%
2.07
2.20 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.32
1.40 ▲
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
51%
1.96
2.10 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
68%
1.48
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
59%
1.70
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
79%
1.26
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
46%
2.19
–
Half-time / full-time
HT ES Sahel / FT ES Sahel✗
28%
3.64
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
13%
7.45
–
Form
AS Marsa – last 6
LDLDWW
6 Sep
@ ES Tunis
1–2
L
29 Aug
vs Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer
0–0
D
23 Aug
@ CA Bizertin
0–1
L
12 May
@ Jeunesse Sportive Omrane
2–2
D
4 May
@ CA Bizertin
2–1
W
30 Apr
vs ES Zarzis
1–0
W
1.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
ES Sahel – last 6
DWLLLL
6 Sep
vs Jeunesse Sportive Omrane
1–1
D
30 Aug
vs ES Metlaoui
2–1
W
23 Aug
@ ES Tunis
2–3
L
14 May
@ CS Sfaxien
1–3
L
4 May
@ ES Zarzis
1–3
L
29 Apr
@ ES Metlaoui
0–2
L
1.2Scored / game
2.2Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between AS Marsa and ES Sahel.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 51% chance, at bookmaker odds of 2.10.
Who will win AS Marsa vs ES Sahel?
On our numbers AS Marsa have a 27% chance of winning, the draw 24% and ES Sahel 48%.
How many goals will there be in AS Marsa vs ES Sahel?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 41% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for AS Marsa vs ES Sahel?
Our predicted score is AS Marsa 1–1 ES Sahel, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is AS Marsa vs ES Sahel?
AS Marsa vs ES Sahel (Ligue 1) kicks off on Saturday 12 September 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time) at Abdelaziz Chtioui Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
US Monastirienne3