Omiya Ardija vs Iwaki prediction & analysis

Omiya Ardija hold the edge on home soil with a 56% chance of winning, against 24% for Iwaki.

Omiya Ardija have taken 7 points from their last 6 matches (2W 1D 3L), scoring 1.7 and conceding 2.0 per game. Iwaki have 11 points from their last 6 (3W 2D 1L), averaging 1.8 scored and 1.2 conceded. Iwaki come into this in clearly the better form.

We expect around 3.1 goals (1.9 for Omiya Ardija, 1.2 for Iwaki). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 60% likely and both teams score 62% of the time on this projection. Recent matches involving both teams have mostly gone over 2.5. Most likely scores: 1–1 (10%), 2–1 (10%), 1–0 (9%).

In their last 1 meeting, Omiya Ardija have won 1, Iwaki have won 0 and 0 ended level, with an average of 5.0 goals per game.

Our pick is Under 3.5 goals at a 61% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.57 is close to our fair price of 1.64. For a bigger price, Omiya Ardija to win at 1.91 is our value angle (56% on our numbers).