Value bet: Shonan Bellmare to win @ 2.90 – our chance 37% vs 34% implied by the price (edge +6%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultSagan Tosu to win ✓39% · @2.35
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.36
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗55% · @1.80
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓76% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✓12% · fair 8.65
Shonan Bellmare vs Sagan Tosu preview and prediction
The match
The J2 League sees Shonan Bellmare take on Sagan Tosu on Tuesday 3 November, kicking off at 06:00 (WAT) at Lemon Gas Stadium. Shonan Bellmare are 10th with 23 points from 16 games (in the top half), while Sagan Tosu sit 13th on 20 points (in the bottom half). Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Shonan Bellmare's last 5: LWDDD Most recently they lost to Consadole Sapporo 0–1 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 0 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Sagan Tosu's last 5: LLWLW Most recently they lost to Jubilo Iwata 0–2 away. They average 1.2 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Sagan Tosu arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.5 points a game against 1.0.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 6 June 2026, finished Sagan Tosu 1–0 Shonan Bellmare.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.3 goals: 1.1 for Shonan Bellmare and 1.2 for Sagan Tosu. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 44%, both teams to score at 55%.
Value angle: Shonan Bellmare to win at 2.90 – 37% on our numbers against 34% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 76% chance at odds of 1.28. Predicted score: Shonan Bellmare 1–1 Sagan Tosu. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Shonan Bellmare37%fair 2.73 · @2.90
Draw24%fair 4.17 · @3.25
Sagan Tosu39%fair 2.54 · @2.35
2.34Expected goals
1.14Shonan Bellmare xG
1.20Sagan Tosu xG
55%Both score
44%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
0–112%
1–011%
0–010%
1–28%
2–18%
From our goals model: Shonan Bellmare 1.1 – 1.2 Sagan Tosu expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Shonan Bellmare vs Sagan Tosu?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Shonan Bellmare vs Sagan Tosu?
On our numbers Shonan Bellmare have a 37% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Sagan Tosu 39%.
How many goals will there be in Shonan Bellmare vs Sagan Tosu?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Shonan Bellmare vs Sagan Tosu?
Our predicted score is Shonan Bellmare 1–1 Sagan Tosu, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Shonan Bellmare vs Sagan Tosu?
Shonan Bellmare vs Sagan Tosu (J2 League) kicks off on Tuesday 3 November 2026 at 06:00 (West Africa Time) at Lemon Gas Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
