Value bet: Montedio Yamagata to win @ 2.50 – our chance 43% vs 40% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultMontedio Yamagata to win ✗43% · @2.50
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓52% · @1.80
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✗73% · fair 1.37
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗16% · fair 6.21
Oita Trinita vs Montedio Yamagata preview and prediction
The match
The J2 League sees Oita Trinita take on Montedio Yamagata on Saturday 3 October, kicking off at 09:00 (WAT) at Oita Bank Dome. Oita Trinita are 11th with 22 points from 16 games (in the bottom half), while Montedio Yamagata sit 14th on 19 points (in the bottom half). Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Oita Trinita's last 5: DDDDL Most recently they drew with Fujieda MYFC 1–1 at home. Goals have dried up – just 0.5 per game.
Montedio Yamagata's last 5: LWLLW Most recently they lost to Yokohama F. Marinos 1–2 at home. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 7 June 2026, finished Oita Trinita 1–0 Montedio Yamagata.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 1.8 goals: 0.8 for Oita Trinita and 1.0 for Montedio Yamagata. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 73% likely. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Value angle: Montedio Yamagata to win at 2.50 – 43% on our numbers against 40% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 52% chance at odds of 1.80. Predicted score: Oita Trinita 1–1 Montedio Yamagata. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Oita Trinita35%fair 2.89 · @2.50
Draw22%fair 4.53 · @3.10
Montedio Yamagata43%fair 2.31 · @2.50
1.81Expected goals
0.83Oita Trinita xG
0.98Montedio Yamagata xG
52%Both score
27%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–016%
0–116%
1–014%
1–113%
0–28%
1–27%
From our goals model: Oita Trinita 0.8 – 1.0 Montedio Yamagata expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Oita Trinita vs Montedio Yamagata?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 52% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.80.
Who will win Oita Trinita vs Montedio Yamagata?
On our numbers Oita Trinita have a 35% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Montedio Yamagata 43%.
How many goals will there be in Oita Trinita vs Montedio Yamagata?
We expect about 1.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 27% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Oita Trinita vs Montedio Yamagata?
Our predicted score is Oita Trinita 1–1 Montedio Yamagata, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.8 goals in total.
When is Oita Trinita vs Montedio Yamagata?
Oita Trinita vs Montedio Yamagata (J2 League) kicks off on Saturday 3 October 2026 at 09:00 (West Africa Time) at Oita Bank Dome.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
