Very strong pick · fair odds 1.21 · bookmaker 1.28 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.28Odds
X
Value bet: Draw @ 3.20 – our chance 55% vs 31% implied by the price (edge +75%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultDraw ✗55% · @3.20
Double chanceTirsense or draw ✓83% · @1.28
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓63% · fair 1.59
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✗68% · @1.60
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–0 ✗19% · fair 5.27
Tirsense vs Vinhais preview and prediction
The match
Vinhais travel to Estadio Abel Alves de Figueiredo in the Campeonato De Portugal Prio Group A on Sunday 23 August (17:00 WAT) to face Tirsense. Tirsense are 4th with 15 points from 8 games (in the top four), while Vinhais sit 14th on 0 points (in the bottom three). A gap of 15 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Tirsense's last 5: WLWWD Most recently they beat Rebordosa 1–0 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game. 5 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 1.7 goals: 0.9 for Tirsense and 0.7 for Vinhais. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 68% likely, and at least one clean sheet is more likely than not. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Tirsense 28%, draw 55%, Vinhais 17%.
Safer route: Tirsense or draw (83%) at 1.28.
Value angle: Draw at 3.20 – 55% on our numbers against 31% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Tirsense or draw – a 83% chance at odds of 1.28, above our fair price of 1.21, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Tirsense 0–0 Vinhais. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Tirsense28%fair 3.59 · @2.05
Draw55%fair 1.83 · @3.20
Vinhais17%fair 5.72 · @3.20
1.66Expected goals
0.92Tirsense xG
0.74Vinhais xG
37%Both score
32%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–019%
1–018%
0–114%
1–113%
2–08%
2–16%
From our goals model: Tirsense 0.9 – 0.7 Vinhais expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Draw✗
55%
1.83
3.20 ▲
Double chance
Tirsense or draw✓
83%
1.21
1.28 ▲
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
63%
1.59
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Under 1.5 goals✗
51%
1.98
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
68%
1.47
1.60 ▲
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
91%
1.10
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
55%
1.83
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Draw / FT Draw✗
26%
3.78
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–0✗
19%
5.27
–
Form
Tirsense – last 6
WLWWDW
16 Aug
@ Rebordosa
1–0
W
29 Jul
vs Varzim
0–1
L
22 Mar
@ Mirandela
1–0
W
15 Mar
vs Ribeira Brava
2–0
W
8 Mar
@ Celoricense
0–0
D
1 Mar
vs Vilaverdense
1–0
W
0.8Scored / game
0.2Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Vinhais – last 1
L
16 Aug
vs Maria da Fonte
0–1
L
0.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Tirsense and Vinhais.
Our pick is Tirsense or draw with a 83% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Tirsense vs Vinhais?
On our numbers Tirsense have a 28% chance of winning, the draw 55% and Vinhais 17%.
How many goals will there be in Tirsense vs Vinhais?
We expect about 1.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 32% likely and both teams score 37% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Tirsense vs Vinhais?
Our predicted score is Tirsense 0–0 Vinhais, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.7 goals in total.
When is Tirsense vs Vinhais?
Tirsense vs Vinhais (Campeonato De Portugal Prio Group A) kicks off on Sunday 23 August 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Abel Alves de Figueiredo.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
