Very strong pick · fair odds 1.21 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.25Odds
1
Value bet: Ascoli to win @ 1.91 – our chance 57% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultAscoli to win ✗57% · @1.91
Double chanceAscoli or draw ✓83% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓52% · @1.75
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓81% · fair 1.24
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗16% · fair 6.17
Ascoli vs Empoli preview and prediction
The match
The Serie B sees Ascoli take on Empoli on Saturday 17 October, kicking off at 14:00 (WAT) at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca. Ascoli are 3rd with 20 points from 11 games (in the top four), while Empoli sit 19th on 9 points (in the bottom three).
Form guide
Ascoli's last 5: DWLWD Most recently they drew with Sudtirol 0–0 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 0.7 conceded.
Empoli's last 5: LLLWL Most recently they lost to Palermo 2–4 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 1.7 conceded.
Ascoli arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.8 points a game against 1.0.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.3 goals: 1.5 for Ascoli and 0.7 for Empoli. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 39%, both teams to score at 52%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Ascoli 57%, draw 25%, Empoli 17%.
Safer route: Ascoli or draw (83%) at 1.25.
Both teams to score: yes (52%) at 1.75.
Value angle: Ascoli to win at 1.91 – 57% on our numbers against 52% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Ascoli or draw – a 83% chance at odds of 1.25, above our fair price of 1.21, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Ascoli 1–0 Empoli. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Ascoli57%fair 1.74 · @1.91
Draw25%fair 3.97 · @3.40
Empoli17%fair 5.75 · @3.75
2.25Expected goals
1.54Ascoli xG
0.71Empoli xG
52%Both score
39%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–016%
2–012%
1–112%
0–011%
2–19%
0–17%
From our goals model: Ascoli 1.5 – 0.7 Empoli expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Ascoli to win✗
57%
1.74
1.91 ▲
Double chance
Ascoli or draw✓
83%
1.21
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
52%
1.94
1.75
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
66%
1.52
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
61%
1.64
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
81%
1.24
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
45%
2.20
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Ascoli / FT Ascoli✗
35%
2.88
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
16%
6.17
–
Form
Ascoli – last 6
DWLWDW
10 Oct
@ Sudtirol
0–0
D
19 Sep
vs Avellino
3–1
W
12 Sep
@ Padova
0–1
L
5 Sep
vs Benevento
1–0
W
29 Aug
vs Carrarese
1–1
D
23 Aug
@ Hellas Verona
2–1
W
1.2Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Empoli – last 6
LLLWLW
10 Oct
vs Palermo
2–4
L
20 Sep
@ Modena
1–2
L
11 Sep
vs Arezzo
0–1
L
5 Sep
@ Carrarese
1–0
W
30 Aug
@ Mantova
1–3
L
22 Aug
vs Cremonese
1–0
W
1.0Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Ascoli and Empoli.
Our pick is Ascoli or draw with a 83% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Ascoli vs Empoli?
On our numbers Ascoli have a 57% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Empoli 17%.
How many goals will there be in Ascoli vs Empoli?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 39% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Ascoli vs Empoli?
Our predicted score is Ascoli 1–0 Empoli, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Ascoli vs Empoli?
Ascoli vs Empoli (Serie B) kicks off on Saturday 17 October 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time) at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
