Very strong pick · fair odds 1.24 · bookmaker 1.25 · Lost ✗
9/10Rating
1.25Odds
1
Value bet: Padova to win @ 1.91 – our chance 60% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +14%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultPadova to win ✗60% · @1.91
Double chancePadova or draw ✗81% · @1.25
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓51% · @2.00
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓70% · fair 1.42
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗20% · fair 4.99
Padova vs Carrarese preview and prediction
The match
The Serie B sees Padova take on Carrarese on Sunday 11 October, kicking off at 16:15 (WAT) at Stadio Comunale Euganeo. Padova are 10th with 15 points from 11 games (in the top half), while Carrarese sit 17th on 10 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
Padova's last 5: LWLDW Most recently they lost to Palermo 1–2 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Carrarese's last 5: LLLDL Most recently they lost to Benevento 0–1 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.3 per game.
Padova arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.2 points a game against 0.2.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 1.9 goals: 1.3 for Padova and 0.6 for Carrarese. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 70% likely. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Padova 60%, draw 21%, Carrarese 19%.
Safer route: Padova or draw (81%) at 1.25.
Both teams to score: no (51%) at 2.00.
Value angle: Padova to win at 1.91 – 60% on our numbers against 52% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Padova or draw – a 81% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Padova 1–0 Carrarese. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Padova60%fair 1.67 · @1.91
Draw21%fair 4.80 · @3.40
Carrarese19%fair 5.17 · @3.70
1.90Expected goals
1.34Padova xG
0.56Carrarese xG
49%Both score
30%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–020%
0–015%
2–013%
1–111%
0–18%
2–18%
From our goals model: Padova 1.3 – 0.6 Carrarese expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Padova to win✗
60%
1.67
1.91 ▲
Double chance
Padova or draw✗
81%
1.24
1.25
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
51%
1.95
2.00
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
57%
1.77
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
70%
1.42
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
87%
1.14
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
50%
2.01
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Padova / FT Padova✗
33%
3.02
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
20%
4.99
–
Form
Padova – last 6
LWLDWL
19 Sep
@ Palermo
1–2
L
12 Sep
vs Ascoli
1–0
W
6 Sep
@ Cremonese
1–3
L
29 Aug
vs Hellas Verona
1–1
D
23 Aug
@ Pisa
1–0
W
15 Aug
@ Udinese
0–1
L
0.8Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Carrarese – last 6
LLLDLL
19 Sep
vs Benevento
0–1
L
12 Sep
@ Catanzaro
0–1
L
5 Sep
vs Empoli
0–1
L
29 Aug
@ Ascoli
1–1
D
22 Aug
vs Mantova
1–2
L
15 Aug
@ Torino
0–1
L
0.3Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Padova and Carrarese.
Our pick is Padova or draw with a 81% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Padova vs Carrarese?
On our numbers Padova have a 60% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Carrarese 19%.
How many goals will there be in Padova vs Carrarese?
We expect about 1.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 30% likely and both teams score 49% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Padova vs Carrarese?
Our predicted score is Padova 1–0 Carrarese, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.9 goals in total.
When is Padova vs Carrarese?
Padova vs Carrarese (Serie B) kicks off on Sunday 11 October 2026 at 16:15 (West Africa Time) at Stadio Comunale Euganeo.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
