Value bet: Hellas Verona to win @ 3.50 – our chance 32% vs 29% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultModena to win ✓46% · @2.05
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.33
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓56% · @1.83
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓79% · fair 1.27
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 10.86
Modena vs Hellas Verona preview and prediction
The match
The Serie B sees Modena take on Hellas Verona on Sunday 11 October, kicking off at 18:30 (WAT) at Stadio Alberto Braglia. Modena are 2nd with 23 points from 11 games (in the top four), while Hellas Verona sit 7th on 16 points (in the top half).
Form guide
Modena's last 5: WDLWW Most recently they beat Empoli 2–1 at home. They average 1.7 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Hellas Verona's last 5: WWLWW Most recently they beat FC Lugano 3–1 away. On the road they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 4. They are scoring freely – 2.3 goals a game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.9 goals: 1.6 for Modena and 1.3 for Hellas Verona. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 55% and both teams to score at 56%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Value angle: Hellas Verona to win at 3.50 – 32% on our numbers against 29% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 56% chance at odds of 1.83, above our fair price of 1.79, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Modena 1–1 Hellas Verona. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Modena46%fair 2.17 · @2.05
Draw22%fair 4.48 · @3.10
Hellas Verona32%fair 3.16 · @3.50
2.90Expected goals
1.61Modena xG
1.29Hellas Verona xG
56%Both score
55%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–111%
2–19%
1–09%
1–27%
2–07%
0–17%
From our goals model: Modena 1.6 – 1.3 Hellas Verona expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Modena to win✓
46%
2.17
2.05
Double chance
Either team to win✓
78%
1.29
1.33
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
56%
1.79
1.83
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
79%
1.27
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
55%
1.80
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
67%
1.49
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
40%
2.48
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Modena / FT Modena✗
27%
3.70
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
10.86
–
Form
Modena – last 6
WDLWWL
20 Sep
vs Empoli
2–1
W
12 Sep
@ Sudtirol
1–1
D
6 Sep
vs Avellino
0–1
L
28 Aug
@ Cremonese
3–0
W
22 Aug
@ Benevento
2–1
W
15 Aug
@ Venezia
2–3
L
1.7Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Hellas Verona – last 6
WWLWWD
2 Oct
@ FC Lugano
3–1
W
20 Sep
vs Vicenza Virtus
2–1
W
11 Sep
@ Benevento
1–3
L
6 Sep
vs Arezzo
5–0
W
3 Sep
@ Cagliari
2–1
W
29 Aug
@ Padova
1–1
D
2.3Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
83%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Modena and Hellas Verona.
What is the prediction for Modena vs Hellas Verona?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 56% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.83.
Who will win Modena vs Hellas Verona?
On our numbers Modena have a 46% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Hellas Verona 32%.
How many goals will there be in Modena vs Hellas Verona?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 55% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Modena vs Hellas Verona?
Our predicted score is Modena 1–1 Hellas Verona, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Modena vs Hellas Verona?
Modena vs Hellas Verona (Serie B) kicks off on Sunday 11 October 2026 at 18:30 (West Africa Time) at Stadio Alberto Braglia.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
