Very strong pick · fair odds 1.15 · bookmaker 1.29 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.29Odds
2
Value bet: Palermo to win @ 1.95 – our chance 64% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +25%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultPalermo to win ✓64% · @1.95
Double chancePalermo or draw ✓87% · @1.29
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓56% · @1.67
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗76% · fair 1.32
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗15% · fair 6.70
Empoli vs Palermo preview and prediction
The match
Empoli host Palermo in the Serie B on Saturday 10 October, with kick-off at 14:00 (WAT) at Carlo Castellani. Empoli are 19th with 9 points from 11 games (in the bottom three), while Palermo sit 1st on 27 points (top of the table). A gap of 18 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Empoli's last 5: LLWLW Most recently they lost to Modena 1–2 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Palermo's last 5: WDWWW Most recently they beat Padova 2–1 at home. Goals have not been a problem: 2.5 per game.
Palermo arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.7 points a game against 1.2.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 0.7 for Empoli and 1.8 for Palermo. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 46%, both teams to score at 56%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Empoli 13%, draw 23%, Palermo 64%.
Safer route: Palermo or draw (87%) at 1.29.
Both teams to score: yes (56%) at 1.67.
Value angle: Palermo to win at 1.95 – 64% on our numbers against 51% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Palermo or draw – a 87% chance at odds of 1.29, above our fair price of 1.15, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Empoli 0–1 Palermo. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Empoli13%fair 7.72 · @3.50
Draw23%fair 4.38 · @3.30
Palermo64%fair 1.56 · @1.95
2.50Expected goals
0.68Empoli xG
1.82Palermo xG
56%Both score
46%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–115%
0–214%
1–110%
1–29%
0–38%
0–08%
From our goals model: Empoli 0.7 – 1.8 Palermo expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Palermo to win✓
64%
1.56
1.95 ▲
Double chance
Palermo or draw✓
87%
1.15
1.29 ▲
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
56%
1.78
1.67
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
71%
1.40
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
54%
1.84
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
76%
1.32
–
Half-time result
Palermo ahead at half-time✗
45%
2.21
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Palermo / FT Palermo✗
41%
2.45
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
15%
6.70
–
Form
Empoli – last 6
LLWLWD
20 Sep
@ Modena
1–2
L
11 Sep
vs Arezzo
0–1
L
5 Sep
@ Carrarese
1–0
W
30 Aug
@ Mantova
1–3
L
22 Aug
vs Cremonese
1–0
W
17 Aug
@ Pisa
1–1
D
0.8Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Palermo – last 6
WDWWWW
19 Sep
vs Padova
2–1
W
13 Sep
@ Avellino
1–1
D
7 Sep
vs Sampdoria
3–1
W
3 Sep
vs Mantova
5–2
W
30 Aug
@ Arezzo
3–2
W
23 Aug
vs Juve Stabia
1–0
W
2.5Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Empoli and Palermo.
Our pick is Palermo or draw with a 87% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.29.
Who will win Empoli vs Palermo?
On our numbers Empoli have a 13% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Palermo 64%.
How many goals will there be in Empoli vs Palermo?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Empoli vs Palermo?
Our predicted score is Empoli 0–1 Palermo, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Empoli vs Palermo?
Empoli vs Palermo (Serie B) kicks off on Saturday 10 October 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time) at Carlo Castellani.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
