Value bet: Ascoli to win @ 3.30 – our chance 36% vs 30% implied by the price (edge +20%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultPadova to win ✓39% · @2.15
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.35
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗52% · @1.80
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓83% · fair 1.21
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✓13% · fair 7.85
Padova vs Ascoli preview and prediction
The match
Ascoli travel to Stadio Euganeo in the Serie B on Saturday 12 September (14:00 WAT) to face Padova. Padova are 10th with 15 points from 11 games (in the top half), while Ascoli sit 3rd on 20 points (in the top four).
Form guide
Padova's last 5: LDWLD Most recently they lost to Cremonese 1–3 away. They average 1.3 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Ascoli's last 5: WDWLW Most recently they beat Benevento 1–0 at home. They average 1.5 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.2 goals: 1.1 for Padova and 1.1 for Ascoli. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 63% likely.
Betting angles
Win chances: Padova 39%, draw 24%, Ascoli 36%.
Both teams to score: yes (52%) at 1.80.
Value angle: Ascoli to win at 3.30 – 36% on our numbers against 30% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 52% chance at odds of 1.80. Predicted score: Padova 1–1 Ascoli. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Padova39%fair 2.54 · @2.15
Draw24%fair 4.10 · @3.10
Ascoli36%fair 2.76 · @3.30
2.17Expected goals
1.12Padova xG
1.05Ascoli xG
52%Both score
37%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–013%
0–112%
0–011%
2–17%
2–07%
From our goals model: Padova 1.1 – 1.1 Ascoli expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Padova to win✓
39%
2.54
2.15
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.32
1.35
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
52%
1.92
1.80
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
64%
1.57
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
63%
1.59
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
83%
1.21
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
48%
2.09
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Padova / FT Padova✗
21%
4.82
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✓
13%
7.85
–
Form
Padova – last 6
LDWLDW
6 Sep
@ Cremonese
1–3
L
29 Aug
vs Hellas Verona
1–1
D
23 Aug
@ Pisa
1–0
W
15 Aug
@ Udinese
0–1
L
7 Aug
@ Monza
3–3
D
1 Aug
@ Cittadella
2–0
W
1.3Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Ascoli – last 6
WDWLWL
5 Sep
vs Benevento
1–0
W
29 Aug
vs Carrarese
1–1
D
23 Aug
@ Hellas Verona
2–1
W
16 Aug
@ Genoa
1–4
L
8 Aug
vs Potenza
3–1
W
2 Aug
vs Lazio
1–2
L
1.5Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Padova and Ascoli.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 52% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.80.
Who will win Padova vs Ascoli?
On our numbers Padova have a 39% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Ascoli 36%.
How many goals will there be in Padova vs Ascoli?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 37% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Padova vs Ascoli?
Our predicted score is Padova 1–1 Ascoli, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is Padova vs Ascoli?
Padova vs Ascoli (Serie B) kicks off on Saturday 12 September 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time) at Stadio Euganeo.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
