Very strong pick · fair odds 1.17 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
1
Value bet: Cremonese to win @ 1.85 – our chance 61% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +14%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultCremonese to win ✓61% · @1.85
Double chanceCremonese or draw ✓85% · @1.22
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗58% · @1.85
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✗74% · fair 1.34
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗23% · fair 4.38
Cremonese vs Padova preview and prediction
The match
Cremonese host Padova in the Serie B on Sunday 6 September, with kick-off at 18:30 (WAT) at Stadio Giovanni Zini. Cremonese are 9th with 15 points from 11 games (in the top half), while Padova sit 10th on 15 points (in the top half). Only goal difference separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Cremonese's last 5: WLLWD Most recently they beat Parma 2–0 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 4. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Padova's last 5: DWLDW Most recently they drew with Hellas Verona 1–1 at home. On the road they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 4. They average 1.3 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 1.8 goals: 1.3 for Cremonese and 0.4 for Padova. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 74% likely, and at least one clean sheet is more likely than not. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Cremonese 61%, draw 24%, Padova 15%.
Safer route: Cremonese or draw (85%) at 1.22.
Both teams to score: no (58%) at 1.85.
Value angle: Cremonese to win at 1.85 – 61% on our numbers against 54% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Cremonese or draw – a 85% chance at odds of 1.22, above our fair price of 1.17, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Cremonese 1–0 Padova. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Cremonese61%fair 1.63 · @1.85
Draw24%fair 4.23 · @3.25
Padova15%fair 6.73 · @4.00
1.75Expected goals
1.31Cremonese xG
0.44Padova xG
42%Both score
26%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–023%
0–017%
2–015%
1–110%
0–18%
3–07%
From our goals model: Cremonese 1.3 – 0.4 Padova expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Cremonese to win✓
61%
1.63
1.85 ▲
Double chance
Cremonese or draw✓
85%
1.17
1.22
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
58%
1.73
1.85 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
52%
1.92
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
74%
1.34
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
90%
1.11
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
52%
1.94
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Cremonese / FT Cremonese✓
35%
2.87
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
23%
4.38
–
Form
Cremonese – last 6
WLLWDD
1 Sep
@ Parma
2–0
W
28 Aug
vs Modena
0–3
L
22 Aug
@ Empoli
0–1
L
17 Aug
vs Sampdoria
2–0
W
1 Aug
vs Lumezzane
0–0
D
29 Jul
vs Cittadella
1–1
D
0.8Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
17%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Padova – last 6
DWLDWL
29 Aug
vs Hellas Verona
1–1
D
23 Aug
@ Pisa
1–0
W
15 Aug
@ Udinese
0–1
L
7 Aug
@ Monza
3–3
D
1 Aug
@ Cittadella
2–0
W
25 Jul
vs Ospitaletto
1–3
L
1.3Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Cremonese and Padova.
Our pick is Cremonese or draw with a 85% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Cremonese vs Padova?
On our numbers Cremonese have a 61% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Padova 15%.
How many goals will there be in Cremonese vs Padova?
We expect about 1.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 26% likely and both teams score 42% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Cremonese vs Padova?
Our predicted score is Cremonese 1–0 Padova, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.8 goals in total.
When is Cremonese vs Padova?
Cremonese vs Padova (Serie B) kicks off on Sunday 6 September 2026 at 18:30 (West Africa Time) at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
