Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓54% · fair 1.84
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓82% · fair 1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✓8% · fair 11.88
Joinville vs Barra preview and prediction
The match
Joinville host Barra in the Copa Santa Catarina on Saturday 26 September, with kick-off at 19:00 (WAT) at Arena Joinville.
Form guide
Joinville's last 5: WLWLL Most recently they beat Nação 4–0 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.8 scored and 1.7 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Barra's last 5: DDDWL Most recently they drew with Nação 3–3 at home. They average 1.7 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.1 goals: 1.6 for Joinville and 1.6 for Barra. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 52% likely and both teams score in 54% of our simulations.
Betting angles
Win chances: Joinville 39%, draw 23%, Barra 38%.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 2.5 goals – a 52% chance at odds of 2.20, above our fair price of 1.94, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Joinville 2–1 Barra. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Joinville39%fair 2.58 · @2.38
Draw23%fair 4.36 · @3.30
Barra38%fair 2.62 · @2.60
3.13Expected goals
1.57Joinville xG
1.56Barra xG
54%Both score
52%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–111%
2–18%
1–28%
1–07%
0–17%
2–27%
From our goals model: Joinville 1.6 – 1.6 Barra expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Joinville to win✓
39%
2.58
2.38
Double chance
Either team to win✓
77%
1.30
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
54%
1.84
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
82%
1.22
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
52%
1.94
2.20 ▲
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
62%
1.62
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
39%
2.58
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Joinville / FT Joinville✗
23%
4.40
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✓
8%
11.88
–
Form
Joinville – last 6
WLWLLW
19 Sep
@ Nação
4–0
W
12 Sep
vs Hercílio Luz
1–3
L
5 Sep
vs Blumenau
1–0
W
30 Aug
@ Marcílio Dias
2–4
L
7 Jun
@ São Luiz
1–3
L
30 May
vs Guarany de Bagé
2–0
W
1.8Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Barra – last 6
DDDWLW
23 Sep
vs Nação
3–3
D
15 Sep
vs Blumenau
2–2
D
5 Sep
@ Figueirense
1–1
D
29 Aug
vs Volta Redonda
2–0
W
23 Aug
@ Maringá
1–2
L
16 Aug
vs AO Itabaiana
1–0
W
1.7Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Joinville and Barra.
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 52% chance, at bookmaker odds of 2.20.
Who will win Joinville vs Barra?
On our numbers Joinville have a 39% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Barra 38%.
How many goals will there be in Joinville vs Barra?
We expect about 3.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 52% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Joinville vs Barra?
Our predicted score is Joinville 2–1 Barra, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.1 goals in total.
When is Joinville vs Barra?
Joinville vs Barra (Copa Santa Catarina) kicks off on Saturday 26 September 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time) at Arena Joinville.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Blumenau1
Marcílio Dias1
Hercílio Luz2
Nação1