Good pick · fair odds 1.60 · bookmaker 1.73 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.73Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultHercílio Luz to win ✓64% · @1.28
Double chanceEither team to win ✓83% · fair 1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓55% · fair 1.81
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✓63% · @1.73
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✓9% · fair 10.68
Hercílio Luz vs Nação preview and prediction
The match
Nação travel to face Hercílio Luz in the Copa Santa Catarina on Saturday 26 September (22:00 WAT).
Form guide
Hercílio Luz's last 5: LWWWD Most recently they lost to Marcílio Dias 2–4 away. They are scoring freely – 2.2 goals a game.
Nação's last 5: DLLDL Most recently they drew with Barra 3–3 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 2.0 conceded.
Hercílio Luz arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.2 points a game against 0.8.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 25 July 2026, finished Nação 1–2 Hercílio Luz. Across their last 2 meetings Hercílio Luz have won 2, Nação 0, with 0 draws and 3.0 goals per game; both teams scored in 2 of them.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.6 goals: 2.4 for Hercílio Luz and 1.2 for Nação. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 63% and both teams to score at 55%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Our pre-match pick was Over 2.5 goals – a 63% chance at odds of 1.73, above our fair price of 1.60, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Hercílio Luz 2–1 Nação. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Hercílio Luz64%fair 1.56 · @1.28
Draw17%fair 5.99 · @5.00
Nação19%fair 5.24 · @7.00
3.65Expected goals
2.41Hercílio Luz xG
1.24Nação xG
55%Both score
63%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–19%
1–18%
2–08%
3–18%
1–06%
3–06%
From our goals model: Hercílio Luz 2.4 – 1.2 Nação expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 63% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.73.
Who will win Hercílio Luz vs Nação?
On our numbers Hercílio Luz have a 64% chance of winning, the draw 17% and Nação 19%.
How many goals will there be in Hercílio Luz vs Nação?
We expect about 3.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 63% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Hercílio Luz vs Nação?
Our predicted score is Hercílio Luz 2–1 Nação, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.6 goals in total.
When is Hercílio Luz vs Nação?
Hercílio Luz vs Nação (Copa Santa Catarina) kicks off on Saturday 26 September 2026 at 22:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Joinville2
Barra1
Blumenau1
Marcílio Dias1