Value bet: Marcílio Dias to win @ 2.50 – our chance 43% vs 40% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultMarcílio Dias to win ✗43% · @2.50
Double chanceEither team to win ✗78% · fair 1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓53% · fair 1.90
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓79% · fair 1.26
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.22
Blumenau vs Marcílio Dias preview and prediction
The match
The Copa Santa Catarina sees Blumenau take on Marcílio Dias on Saturday 26 September, kicking off at 21:00 (WAT).
Form guide
Blumenau's last 5: LDLLL Most recently they lost to Metropolitano 0–1 at home. At home they have won 0 and lost 3 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.5 per game.
Marcílio Dias's last 5: WLWWL Most recently they beat Hercílio Luz 4–2 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. Goals have not been a problem: 2.5 per game.
Marcílio Dias arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.7 points a game against 0.3.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.9 goals: 1.4 for Blumenau and 1.6 for Marcílio Dias. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 48% likely and both teams score in 53% of our simulations.
Betting angles
Win chances: Blumenau 35%, draw 22%, Marcílio Dias 43%.
Value angle: Marcílio Dias to win at 2.50 – 43% on our numbers against 40% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 52% chance at odds of 1.53. Predicted score: Blumenau 1–1 Marcílio Dias. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Blumenau35%fair 2.88 · @2.50
Draw22%fair 4.58 · @3.20
Marcílio Dias43%fair 2.30 · @2.50
2.94Expected goals
1.37Blumenau xG
1.57Marcílio Dias xG
53%Both score
48%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–111%
1–29%
0–18%
2–18%
1–07%
0–26%
From our goals model: Blumenau 1.4 – 1.6 Marcílio Dias expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Marcílio Dias to win✗
43%
2.30
2.50 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✗
78%
1.28
–
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
53%
1.90
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
79%
1.26
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
52%
1.91
1.53
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
66%
1.51
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
40%
2.49
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Marcílio Dias / FT Marcílio Dias✗
25%
3.99
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
11.22
–
Form
Blumenau – last 6
LDLLLD
19 Sep
vs Metropolitano
0–1
L
15 Sep
@ Barra
2–2
D
5 Sep
@ Joinville
0–1
L
29 Aug
vs Santa Catarina
0–1
L
22 Jul
vs Nação
0–2
L
19 Jul
@ Guarani de Palhoça
1–1
D
0.5Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Marcílio Dias – last 6
WLWWLD
19 Sep
vs Hercílio Luz
4–2
W
13 Sep
@ Santa Catarina
1–2
L
7 Sep
@ Metropolitano
5–2
W
30 Aug
vs Joinville
4–2
W
11 Jul
@ Portuguesa
0–2
L
4 Jul
vs Portuguesa
1–1
D
2.5Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Blumenau and Marcílio Dias.
What is the prediction for Blumenau vs Marcílio Dias?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 52% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.53.
Who will win Blumenau vs Marcílio Dias?
On our numbers Blumenau have a 35% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Marcílio Dias 43%.
How many goals will there be in Blumenau vs Marcílio Dias?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 48% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Blumenau vs Marcílio Dias?
Our predicted score is Blumenau 1–1 Marcílio Dias, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Blumenau vs Marcílio Dias?
Blumenau vs Marcílio Dias (Copa Santa Catarina) kicks off on Saturday 26 September 2026 at 21:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Joinville2
Barra1
Hercílio Luz2
Nação1