Good pick · fair odds 1.55 · bookmaker 1.44 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.44Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultParedes to win ✓65% · @1.44
Double chanceParedes or draw ✓83% · @1.11
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗53% · @1.91
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗74% · fair 1.35
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗14% · fair 7.24
Paredes vs Trofense preview and prediction
The match
Paredes host Trofense in the Liga 3 on Saturday 24 October, with kick-off at 16:00 (WAT) at Municipal das Laranjeiras. Paredes are 1st with 22 points from 9 games (top of the table), while Trofense sit 10th on 5 points (in the top half). A gap of 17 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Paredes's last 5: WDWWW Most recently they beat Famalicao 1–0 at home. At home they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 3. They are scoring freely – 2.5 goals a game.
Trofense's last 5: DLDLW Most recently they drew with Fafe 2–2 away. On the road they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 4. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Paredes arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.7 points a game against 0.8.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.8 for Paredes and 0.8 for Trofense. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 48%, both teams to score at 53%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Paredes 65%, draw 18%, Trofense 17%.
Both teams to score: yes (53%) at 1.91.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Paredes to win – a 65% chance at odds of 1.44. Predicted score: Paredes 1–0 Trofense. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Paredes65%fair 1.55 · @1.44
Draw18%fair 5.41 · @4.00
Trofense17%fair 5.93 · @6.00
2.58Expected goals
1.82Paredes xG
0.76Trofense xG
53%Both score
48%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–014%
2–013%
1–110%
2–110%
3–08%
0–08%
From our goals model: Paredes 1.8 – 0.8 Trofense expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Paredes to win✓
65%
1.55
1.44
Double chance
Paredes or draw✓
83%
1.20
1.11
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
53%
1.89
1.91
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
73%
1.37
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
52%
1.91
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
74%
1.35
–
Half-time result
Paredes ahead at half-time✓
44%
2.26
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Paredes / FT Paredes✓
40%
2.53
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
14%
7.24
–
Form
Paredes – last 6
WDWWWW
18 Oct
vs Famalicao
1–0
W
10 Oct
@ Vianense
3–3
D
20 Sep
vs Maria da Fonte
5–1
W
13 Sep
vs Fafe
2–1
W
5 Sep
@ Varzim
1–0
W
30 Aug
@ Ermesinde
3–1
W
2.5Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Trofense – last 6
DLDLWL
11 Oct
@ Fafe
2–2
D
12 Sep
vs Leça
1–4
L
5 Sep
@ Guimaraes B
0–0
D
29 Aug
@ Varzim
1–5
L
22 Aug
vs São João Ver
1–0
W
15 Aug
@ Vianense
0–2
L
0.8Scored / game
2.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Paredes and Trofense.
Our pick is Paredes to win with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.44.
Who will win Paredes vs Trofense?
On our numbers Paredes have a 65% chance of winning, the draw 18% and Trofense 17%.
How many goals will there be in Paredes vs Trofense?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 48% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Paredes vs Trofense?
Our predicted score is Paredes 1–0 Trofense, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Paredes vs Trofense?
Paredes vs Trofense (Liga 3) kicks off on Saturday 24 October 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time) at Municipal das Laranjeiras.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
