Value bet: AD Marco 09 to win @ 3.00 – our chance 36% vs 33% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultLeça to win ✓39% · @2.20
Double chanceEither team to win ✓75% · @1.36
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗54% · @1.91
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓78% · fair 1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗11% · fair 8.92
Leça vs AD Marco 09 preview and prediction
The match
Leça host AD Marco 09 in the Liga 3 on Saturday 10 October, with kick-off at 11:00 (WAT) at Estadio do Leca Futebol Clube. Leça are 2nd with 14 points from 9 games (in the top four), while AD Marco 09 sit 3rd on 14 points (in the top four). Only goal difference separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Leça's last 5: WWLWL Most recently they beat Mortágua 2–0 away. They average 1.5 scored and 1.3 conceded.
AD Marco 09's last 5: WWDWW Most recently they beat Maia Lidador 1–0 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 0.3 conceded. 5 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.2 for Leça and 1.2 for AD Marco 09. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 43%, both teams to score at 54%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Leça 39%, draw 25%, AD Marco 09 36%.
Both teams to score: yes (54%) at 1.91.
Value angle: AD Marco 09 to win at 3.00 – 36% on our numbers against 33% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 54% chance at odds of 1.91, above our fair price of 1.86, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Leça 1–1 AD Marco 09. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Leça39%fair 2.56 · @2.20
Draw25%fair 3.95 · @2.90
AD Marco 0936%fair 2.81 · @3.00
2.40Expected goals
1.24Leça xG
1.16AD Marco 09 xG
54%Both score
43%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–011%
0–111%
0–09%
2–18%
1–28%
From our goals model: Leça 1.2 – 1.2 AD Marco 09 expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Leça to win✓
39%
2.56
2.20
Double chance
Either team to win✓
75%
1.34
1.36
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
54%
1.86
1.91
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
69%
1.45
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
57%
1.76
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
78%
1.28
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
45%
2.21
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Leça / FT Leça✓
22%
4.62
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
11%
8.92
–
Form
Leça – last 6
WWLWLD
20 Sep
@ Mortágua
2–0
W
12 Sep
@ Trofense
4–1
W
6 Sep
vs Fafe
0–3
L
23 Aug
@ Paredes
2–1
W
15 Aug
@ Guimaraes B
0–2
L
9 Aug
vs São João Ver
1–1
D
1.5Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
AD Marco 09 – last 6
WWDWWL
20 Sep
vs Maia Lidador
1–0
W
12 Sep
vs Guimaraes B
1–0
W
6 Sep
@ São João Ver
0–0
D
30 Aug
@ Régua
1–0
W
23 Aug
vs Vianense
2–0
W
16 Aug
@ Varzim
1–2
L
1.0Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
17%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Leça and AD Marco 09.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 54% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.91.
Who will win Leça vs AD Marco 09?
On our numbers Leça have a 39% chance of winning, the draw 25% and AD Marco 09 36%.
How many goals will there be in Leça vs AD Marco 09?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Leça vs AD Marco 09?
Our predicted score is Leça 1–1 AD Marco 09, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Leça vs AD Marco 09?
Leça vs AD Marco 09 (Liga 3) kicks off on Saturday 10 October 2026 at 11:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio do Leca Futebol Clube.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
