Value bet: Fafe to win @ 3.20 – our chance 39% vs 31% implied by the price (edge +24%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultFafe to win ✗39% · @3.20
Double chanceEither team to win ✓75% · @1.35
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗51% · @1.85
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓81% · fair 1.24
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗12% · fair 8.27
Paredes vs Fafe preview and prediction
The match
The Liga 3 sees Paredes take on Fafe on Sunday 13 September, kicking off at 20:30 (WAT) at Municipal das Laranjeiras. Paredes are 1st with 22 points from 9 games (top of the table), while Fafe sit 4th on 13 points (in the top four).
Form guide
Paredes's last 5: WWLWW Most recently they beat Varzim 1–0 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They are scoring freely – 2.2 goals a game.
Fafe's last 5: WDDWD Most recently they beat Leça 3–0 away. On the road they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 0.3 conceded. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Paredes arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.5 points a game against 2.0.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 22 March 2026, finished Fafe 1–0 Paredes. Across their last 2 meetings Paredes have won 0, Fafe 1, with 1 draw and 0.5 goals per game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.3 goals: 1.1 for Paredes and 1.1 for Fafe. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 39%, both teams to score at 49%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Paredes 37%, draw 25%, Fafe 39%.
Both teams to score: no (51%) at 1.85.
Value angle: Fafe to win at 3.20 – 39% on our numbers against 31% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Not both teams to score – a 51% chance at odds of 1.85. Predicted score: Paredes 0–1 Fafe. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Paredes37%fair 2.73 · @2.15
Draw25%fair 4.07 · @3.00
Fafe39%fair 2.58 · @3.20
2.25Expected goals
1.10Paredes xG
1.15Fafe xG
49%Both score
39%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
0–112%
1–012%
0–011%
1–28%
2–17%
From our goals model: Paredes 1.1 – 1.1 Fafe expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Not both teams to score with a 51% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.85.
Who will win Paredes vs Fafe?
On our numbers Paredes have a 37% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Fafe 39%.
How many goals will there be in Paredes vs Fafe?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 39% likely and both teams score 49% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Paredes vs Fafe?
Our predicted score is Paredes 0–1 Fafe, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Paredes vs Fafe?
Paredes vs Fafe (Liga 3) kicks off on Sunday 13 September 2026 at 20:30 (West Africa Time) at Municipal das Laranjeiras.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
