Very strong pick · fair odds 1.22 · bookmaker 1.20 · Lost ✗
9/10Rating
1.20Odds
1
Value bet: Paredes to win @ 1.83 – our chance 61% vs 55% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultParedes to win ✗61% · @1.83
Double chanceParedes or draw ✗82% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓50% · @1.95
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓81% · fair 1.24
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗17% · fair 6.02
Paredes vs Leça preview and prediction
The match
The Liga 3 sees Paredes take on Leça on Sunday 23 August, kicking off at 11:00 (WAT) at Municipal das Laranjeiras. Paredes are 1st with 22 points from 9 games (top of the table), while Leça sit 2nd on 14 points (in the top four).
Form guide
Paredes's last 5: WWWWL Most recently they beat Pacos Ferreira 1–0 away. Goals have not been a problem: 2.0 per game.
Leça's last 5: LDDLD Most recently they lost to Guimaraes B 0–2 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.5 per game.
Paredes arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.0 points a game against 1.0.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.3 goals: 1.6 for Paredes and 0.7 for Leça. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 39%, both teams to score at 50%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Paredes 61%, draw 21%, Leça 18%.
Safer route: Paredes or draw (82%) at 1.20.
Both teams to score: yes (50%) at 1.95.
Value angle: Paredes to win at 1.83 – 61% on our numbers against 55% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Paredes or draw – a 82% chance at odds of 1.20. Predicted score: Paredes 1–0 Leça. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Paredes61%fair 1.63 · @1.83
Draw21%fair 4.85 · @3.00
Leça18%fair 5.55 · @4.20
2.25Expected goals
1.58Paredes xG
0.67Leça xG
50%Both score
39%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–017%
2–013%
1–111%
0–011%
2–19%
0–17%
From our goals model: Paredes 1.6 – 0.7 Leça expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Paredes to win✗
61%
1.63
1.83 ▲
Double chance
Paredes or draw✗
82%
1.22
1.20
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
50%
2.00
1.95
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
66%
1.52
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
61%
1.64
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
81%
1.24
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
45%
2.21
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Paredes / FT Paredes✗
36%
2.77
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
17%
6.02
–
Form
Paredes – last 6
WWWWLL
15 Aug
@ Pacos Ferreira
1–0
W
7 Aug
vs Guimaraes B
3–1
W
1 Aug
vs Lusitânia Lourosa
4–2
W
22 Jul
@ AVS
4–2
W
18 Jul
@ Santa Clara
0–2
L
22 Mar
@ Fafe
0–1
L
2.0Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Leça – last 6
LDDLDW
15 Aug
@ Guimaraes B
0–2
L
9 Aug
vs São João Ver
1–1
D
29 Jul
vs Lusitânia Lourosa
0–0
D
15 Jul
@ Santa Clara
0–4
L
10 Jun
vs Vitória de Sernache
1–1
D
31 May
vs Bragança
1–0
W
0.5Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Paredes and Leça.
Our pick is Paredes or draw with a 82% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Paredes vs Leça?
On our numbers Paredes have a 61% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Leça 18%.
How many goals will there be in Paredes vs Leça?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 39% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Paredes vs Leça?
Our predicted score is Paredes 1–0 Leça, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Paredes vs Leça?
Paredes vs Leça (Liga 3) kicks off on Sunday 23 August 2026 at 11:00 (West Africa Time) at Municipal das Laranjeiras.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
