Mafra vs Vitória de Sernache prediction & analysis
67%
Footrivo pick
Mafra to win
Good pick · fair odds 1.50 · bookmaker 1.73 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.73Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultMafra to win ✓67% · @1.73
Double chanceMafra or draw ✓87% · @1.15
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗57% · @1.73
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓75% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗13% · fair 7.81
Mafra vs Vitória de Sernache preview and prediction
The match
The Liga 3 sees Mafra take on Vitória de Sernache on Saturday 8 August, kicking off at 20:00 (WAT) at Estadio Municipal de Mafra. Mafra are 5th with 12 points from 9 games (in the top half), while Vitória de Sernache sit 8th on 7 points (in the top half).
Form guide
Mafra's last 5: WLWWL Most recently they beat Alverca 1–0 at home. They average 1.7 scored and 1.2 conceded. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Vitória de Sernache's last 5: DDDDW Most recently they drew with Leça 1–1 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.5 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Mafra arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.0 points a game against 1.2.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.7 goals: 2.0 for Mafra and 0.8 for Vitória de Sernache. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 52%, both teams to score at 57%. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Mafra 67%, draw 20%, Vitória de Sernache 13%.
Safer route: Mafra or draw (87%) at 1.15.
Both teams to score: yes (57%) at 1.73.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Mafra to win – a 67% chance at odds of 1.73, above our fair price of 1.50, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Mafra 1–0 Vitória de Sernache. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Mafra67%fair 1.50 · @1.73
Draw20%fair 4.95 · @3.60
Vitória de Sernache13%fair 7.56 · @4.20
2.75Expected goals
1.99Mafra xG
0.75Vitória de Sernache xG
57%Both score
52%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–013%
2–013%
1–110%
2–110%
3–08%
0–06%
From our goals model: Mafra 2.0 – 0.8 Vitória de Sernache expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Mafra to win✓
67%
1.50
1.73 ▲
Double chance
Mafra or draw✓
87%
1.15
1.15
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
57%
1.76
1.73
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
75%
1.33
1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
52%
1.93
1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
70%
1.44
1.35
Half-time result
Mafra ahead at half-time✓
47%
2.11
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Mafra / FT Mafra✓
43%
2.33
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
13%
7.81
–
Form
Mafra – last 6
WLWWLW
25 Jul
vs Alverca
1–0
W
15 Jul
@ FC Fredericia
2–3
L
11 Jul
@ Esbjerg
2–0
W
3 May
@ Guimaraes B
2–0
W
19 Apr
vs Amarante
1–4
L
11 Apr
@ Varzim
2–0
W
1.7Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Vitória de Sernache – last 6
DDDDWL
10 Jun
@ Leça
1–1
D
31 May
vs Louletano
1–1
D
17 May
vs Oliveira Hospital
0–0
D
25 Mar
vs Benfica Castelo Branco
0–0
D
15 Mar
@ Peniche
1–0
W
8 Mar
vs Oliveira Hospital
0–1
L
0.5Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Mafra and Vitória de Sernache.
What is the prediction for Mafra vs Vitória de Sernache?
Our pick is Mafra to win with a 67% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.73.
Who will win Mafra vs Vitória de Sernache?
On our numbers Mafra have a 67% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Vitória de Sernache 13%.
How many goals will there be in Mafra vs Vitória de Sernache?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 52% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Mafra vs Vitória de Sernache?
Our predicted score is Mafra 1–0 Vitória de Sernache, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Mafra vs Vitória de Sernache?
Mafra vs Vitória de Sernache (Liga 3) kicks off on Saturday 8 August 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Municipal de Mafra.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
