Very strong pick · fair odds 1.14 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.25Odds
1
Value bet: Alvechurch to win @ 1.85 – our chance 63% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +16%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultAlvechurch to win ✗63% · @1.85
Double chanceAlvechurch or draw ✓88% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗56% · @1.67
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗76% · fair 1.32
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗13% · fair 7.89
Alvechurch vs Stourbridge preview and prediction
The match
The Non League Premier Southern Central sees Alvechurch take on Stourbridge on Tuesday 29 September, kicking off at 19:45 (WAT). Alvechurch are 8th with 26 points from 14 games (in the top half), while Stourbridge sit 11th on 22 points (in the top half).
Form guide
Alvechurch's last 5: LDWWW Most recently they lost to Bourne Town 1–2 at home. At home they have won 3 and lost 1 of their last 4. Goals have not been a problem: 2.2 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Stourbridge's last 5: WLDLD Most recently they beat Rushall Olympic 3–1 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 1.8 conceded.
Alvechurch arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.2 points a game against 1.0.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 6 April 2026, finished Stourbridge 1–1 Alvechurch. Across their last 2 meetings Alvechurch have won 0, Stourbridge 1, with 1 draw and 2.5 goals per game; both teams scored in 2 of them.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.7 goals: 1.9 for Alvechurch and 0.8 for Stourbridge. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 51%, both teams to score at 56%.
Value angle: Alvechurch to win at 1.85 – 63% on our numbers against 54% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Alvechurch or draw – a 88% chance at odds of 1.25, above our fair price of 1.14, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Alvechurch 1–0 Stourbridge. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Alvechurch63%fair 1.60 · @1.85
Draw25%fair 4.00 · @3.10
Stourbridge12%fair 8.10 · @3.60
2.73Expected goals
1.94Alvechurch xG
0.79Stourbridge xG
56%Both score
51%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–013%
2–012%
1–110%
2–110%
3–08%
0–07%
From our goals model: Alvechurch 1.9 – 0.8 Stourbridge expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Alvechurch vs Stourbridge?
Our pick is Alvechurch or draw with a 88% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Alvechurch vs Stourbridge?
On our numbers Alvechurch have a 63% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Stourbridge 12%.
How many goals will there be in Alvechurch vs Stourbridge?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 51% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Alvechurch vs Stourbridge?
Our predicted score is Alvechurch 1–0 Stourbridge, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Alvechurch vs Stourbridge?
Alvechurch vs Stourbridge (Non League Premier Southern Central) kicks off on Tuesday 29 September 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
