EFL Trophy · England · Plough Lane
AFC Wimbledon vs Arsenal U21 prediction & analysis
AFC Wimbledon to win
Good pick · fair odds 1.51 · bookmaker 1.50 · Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: AFC Wimbledon 2.1 – 0.9 Arsenal U21 expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
AFC Wimbledon are clear favourites at home with a 66% chance of winning, against 15% for Arsenal U21.
AFC Wimbledon have taken 3 points from their last 6 matches (0W 3D 3L), scoring 0.5 and conceding 2.0 per game. Arsenal U21 have 6 points from their last 6 (1W 3D 2L), averaging 1.3 scored and 2.2 conceded.
We expect around 3.0 goals (2.1 for AFC Wimbledon, 0.9 for Arsenal U21). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score 62% of the time on this projection. Most likely scores: 2–0 (11%), 1–0 (11%), 2–1 (10%).
Our pick is AFC Wimbledon to win at a 66% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.50 is close to our fair price of 1.51.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | AFC Wimbledon to win ✗ | 66% | 1.51 | 1.50 |
| Double chance | AFC Wimbledon or draw ✗ | 85% | 1.17 | 1.15 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 62% | 1.62 | 1.44 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 80% | 1.25 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✓ | 58% | 1.73 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 65% | 1.55 | – |
| Half-time result | AFC Wimbledon ahead at half-time ✗ | 48% | 2.09 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT AFC Wimbledon / FT AFC Wimbledon ✗ | 43% | 2.33 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 2–0 ✗ | 11% | 8.91 | – |
Form
AFC Wimbledon – last 6
| 24 Oct | vs Wycombe | 1–1 | D |
| 20 Oct | vs Mansfield Town | 0–3 | L |
| 17 Oct | @ Sheffield Wednesday | 0–5 | L |
| 10 Oct | @ Plymouth | 1–2 | L |
| 6 Oct | vs Barnet | 0–0 | D |
| 26 Sep | @ Cambridge United | 1–1 | D |
Arsenal U21 – last 6
| 24 Oct | @ Leicester City U21 | 1–4 | L |
| 10 Oct | vs Sunderland U21 | 2–2 | D |
| 18 Sep | @ Birmingham City U21 | 0–0 | D |
| 15 Sep | @ Leyton Orient | 2–1 | W |
| 12 Sep | vs Chelsea U21 | 1–4 | L |
| 31 Aug | @ Brighton U21 | 2–2 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between AFC Wimbledon and Arsenal U21.
EFL Trophy table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Cardiff | 3 | +2 | 6 |
| 2 |  Exeter City | 3 | +1 | 6 |
| 3 |  Newport County | 3 | -1 | 3 |
| 4 |  Arsenal U21 | 3 | -2 | 3 |
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What is the prediction for AFC Wimbledon vs Arsenal U21?
Our pick is AFC Wimbledon to win with a 66% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.50.
Who will win AFC Wimbledon vs Arsenal U21?
On our numbers AFC Wimbledon have a 66% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Arsenal U21 15%.
How many goals will there be in AFC Wimbledon vs Arsenal U21?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score 62% of the time on our projection.
When is AFC Wimbledon vs Arsenal U21?
AFC Wimbledon vs Arsenal U21 (EFL Trophy) kicks off on Tuesday 27 October 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time) at Plough Lane.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.