National League South · England · The Fusion Aviation Community StadiumHorsham vs Chesham United prediction & analysis
Over 1.5 goals
Strong pick · fair odds 1.29 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
Value bet: Chesham United to win @ 2.90 – our chance 38% vs 34% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Horsham 1.4 – 1.4 Chesham United expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Very little separates Horsham and Chesham United on our numbers – 40% for the home side, 38% for the visitors and 22% for a draw. This is a match where the price matters more than the pick.
Horsham have taken 9 points from their last 6 matches (2W 3D 1L), scoring 1.2 and conceding 0.8 per game. Chesham United have 7 points from their last 6 (2W 1D 3L), averaging 1.7 scored and 1.3 conceded.
We expect around 2.8 goals (1.4 for Horsham, 1.4 for Chesham United). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 55%, both teams to score at 60%. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12%), 1–0 (9%), 2–1 (8%).
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals at a 78% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.20 is close to our fair price of 1.29. For a bigger price, Chesham United to win at 2.90 is our value angle (38% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Horsham to win ✗ | 40% | 2.50 | 2.00 |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✓ | 78% | 1.28 | 1.22 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 60% | 1.67 | 1.57 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 78% | 1.29 | 1.20 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✓ | 55% | 1.81 | 1.65 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✗ | 66% | 1.52 | 1.50 |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✗ | 41% | 2.43 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Horsham / FT Horsham ✗ | 22% | 4.45 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 ✗ | 9% | 11.73 | – |
Form
Horsham – last 6
| 8 Sep | @ Folkestone Invicta | 1–1 | D |
| 5 Sep | vs Dagenham & Redbridge | 1–1 | D |
| 29 Aug | vs Farnham Town | 1–2 | L |
| 22 Aug | @ Braintree | 2–1 | W |
| 18 Aug | vs Hampton & Richmond | 2–0 | W |
| 15 Aug | vs Salisbury | 0–0 | D |
Chesham United – last 6
| 8 Sep | vs Billericay Town | 1–2 | L |
| 5 Sep | @ Truro City | 1–3 | L |
| 31 Aug | vs Dover | 2–2 | D |
| 29 Aug | @ AFC Totton | 4–0 | W |
| 22 Aug | vs Walton & Hersham | 2–0 | W |
| 19 Aug | @ Farnborough | 0–1 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Horsham and Chesham United.
National League South table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Ebbsfleet United | 16 | +26 | 35 |
| 2 |  Maidstone Utd | 16 | +9 | 32 |
| 3 |  Truro City | 14 | +15 | 30 |
| 4 |  Farnham Town | 16 | +12 | 29 |
| 5 |  Salisbury | 14 | +15 | 28 |
| 6 |  Dorking Wanderers | 15 | +11 | 27 |
| 7 |  Billericay Town | 14 | +16 | 26 |
| 8 |  Chelmsford City | 16 | +8 | 25 |
| 9 |  Dagenham & Redbridge | 16 | +2 | 25 |
| 10 |  Tonbridge Angels | 16 | +9 | 24 |
| 11 |  Horsham | 16 | +4 | 22 |
| 12 |  Dover | 14 | +1 | 22 |
| 13 |  Weston-super-Mare | 15 | +3 | 21 |
| 14 |  Torquay | 14 | +5 | 20 |
| 15 |  Folkestone Invicta | 15 | +4 | 20 |
| 16 |  AFC Totton | 16 | -12 | 19 |
| 17 |  Farnborough | 16 | -20 | 17 |
| 18 |  Maidenhead | 16 | -5 | 16 |
| 19 |  Braintree | 15 | -16 | 16 |
| 20 |  Hemel Hempstead Town | 16 | -9 | 15 |
| 21 |  Chesham United | 15 | -13 | 11 |
| 22 |  Hampton & Richmond | 16 | -18 | 10 |
| 23 |  Walton & Hersham | 15 | -25 | 8 |
| 24 |  Slough Town | 16 | -22 | 7 |
More National League South predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Horsham vs Chesham United?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Horsham vs Chesham United?
On our numbers Horsham have a 40% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Chesham United 38%.
How many goals will there be in Horsham vs Chesham United?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 55% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
When is Horsham vs Chesham United?
Horsham vs Chesham United (National League South) kicks off on Saturday 12 September 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at The Fusion Aviation Community Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.