Truro City vs Chesham United prediction & analysis
85%
Footrivo pick
Truro City or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.17 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.25Odds
1
Value bet: Truro City to win @ 1.85 – our chance 65% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +20%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultTruro City to win ✓65% · @1.85
Double chanceTruro City or draw ✓85% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓53% · @1.73
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗77% · fair 1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗15% · fair 6.53
Truro City vs Chesham United preview and prediction
The match
Chesham United travel to Truro Sports Hub in the National League South on Saturday 5 September (15:00 WAT) to face Truro City. Truro City are 4th with 30 points from 14 games (in the top four), while Chesham United sit 21st on 11 points (in the bottom half). A gap of 19 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Truro City's last 5: LWWWD Most recently they lost to Dorking Wanderers 0–1 away. At home they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 0.3 conceded. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Chesham United's last 5: DWWLL Most recently they drew with Dover 2–2 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 3 of their last 4. They average 1.7 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Truro City arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.2 points a game against 1.2.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.8 for Truro City and 0.7 for Chesham United. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 44%, both teams to score at 53%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Truro City 65%, draw 21%, Chesham United 15%.
Safer route: Truro City or draw (85%) at 1.25.
Both teams to score: yes (53%) at 1.73.
Value angle: Truro City to win at 1.85 – 65% on our numbers against 54% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Truro City or draw – a 85% chance at odds of 1.25, above our fair price of 1.17, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Truro City 1–0 Chesham United. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Truro City65%fair 1.54 · @1.85
Draw21%fair 4.87 · @3.40
Chesham United15%fair 6.83 · @3.50
2.45Expected goals
1.78Truro City xG
0.67Chesham United xG
53%Both score
44%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–015%
2–014%
1–110%
2–19%
0–09%
3–08%
From our goals model: Truro City 1.8 – 0.7 Chesham United expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Truro City to win✓
65%
1.54
1.85 ▲
Double chance
Truro City or draw✓
85%
1.17
1.25 ▲
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
53%
1.90
1.73
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
70%
1.42
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
56%
1.80
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
77%
1.30
–
Half-time result
Truro City ahead at half-time✗
44%
2.25
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Truro City / FT Truro City✗
40%
2.49
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
15%
6.53
–
Form
Truro City – last 6
LWWWDW
31 Aug
@ Dorking Wanderers
0–1
L
29 Aug
vs Dagenham & Redbridge
3–0
W
22 Aug
@ Tonbridge Angels
2–0
W
18 Aug
vs Southampton U21
2–1
W
15 Aug
@ Chelmsford City
0–0
D
8 Aug
vs Maidenhead
2–0
W
1.5Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
17%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Chesham United – last 6
DWWLLL
31 Aug
vs Dover
2–2
D
29 Aug
@ AFC Totton
4–0
W
22 Aug
vs Walton & Hersham
2–0
W
19 Aug
@ Farnborough
0–1
L
15 Aug
@ Braintree
2–3
L
8 Aug
@ Weston-super-Mare
0–3
L
1.7Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Truro City and Chesham United.
What is the prediction for Truro City vs Chesham United?
Our pick is Truro City or draw with a 85% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Truro City vs Chesham United?
On our numbers Truro City have a 65% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Chesham United 15%.
How many goals will there be in Truro City vs Chesham United?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Truro City vs Chesham United?
Our predicted score is Truro City 1–0 Chesham United, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Truro City vs Chesham United?
Truro City vs Chesham United (National League South) kicks off on Saturday 5 September 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Truro Sports Hub.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
