National League North · EnglandMerthyr Town vs Morecambe prediction & analysis
Both teams to score
Good pick · fair odds 1.71 · bookmaker 1.55 · Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Merthyr Town 1.2 – 1.1 Morecambe expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Very little separates Merthyr Town and Morecambe on our numbers – 40% for the home side, 37% for the visitors and 23% for a draw. This is a match where the price matters more than the pick.
Merthyr Town have taken 4 points from their last 6 matches (0W 4D 2L), scoring 0.7 and conceding 1.2 per game. Morecambe have 10 points from their last 6 (3W 1D 2L), averaging 1.8 scored and 0.8 conceded. Morecambe come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 2.3 goals (1.2 for Merthyr Town, 1.1 for Morecambe). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 40%, both teams to score at 58%. Most likely scores: 1–1 (13%), 1–0 (12%), 0–1 (11%).
Our pick is Both teams to score at a 58% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.55 is close to our fair price of 1.71.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Merthyr Town to win ✗ | 40% | 2.48 | 2.25 |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✓ | 77% | 1.30 | 1.30 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 58% | 1.71 | 1.55 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 67% | 1.49 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✗ | 60% | 1.68 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✗ | 80% | 1.25 | – |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✗ | 46% | 2.16 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Merthyr Town / FT Merthyr Town ✗ | 21% | 4.68 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 ✗ | 12% | 8.41 | – |
Form
Merthyr Town – last 6
| 17 Oct | vs King's Lynn Town | 1–1 | D |
| 10 Oct | @ Darlington 1883 | 1–1 | D |
| 26 Sep | vs Marine | 1–2 | L |
| 22 Sep | @ Truro City | 0–2 | L |
| 19 Sep | vs Truro City | 1–1 | D |
| 12 Sep | @ Scarborough Athletic | 0–0 | D |
Morecambe – last 6
| 17 Oct | @ AFC Rushden & Diamonds | 1–2 | L |
| 10 Oct | @ Worksop Town | 1–2 | L |
| 3 Oct | vs Darlington 1883 | 3–0 | W |
| 26 Sep | @ Oxford City | 1–1 | D |
| 19 Sep | vs Southport | 2–0 | W |
| 12 Sep | vs Brackley Town | 3–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Merthyr Town and Morecambe.
National League North table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  South Shields | 15 | +10 | 32 |
| 2 |  Hereford | 15 | +14 | 29 |
| 3 |  Oxford City | 14 | +15 | 27 |
| 4 |  Macclesfield | 13 | +10 | 27 |
| 5 |  Hednesford Town | 16 | +8 | 27 |
| 6 |  King's Lynn Town | 16 | +6 | 27 |
| 7 |  Buxton | 16 | +5 | 27 |
| 8 |  Chester | 15 | +4 | 26 |
| 9 |  Morecambe | 15 | +5 | 23 |
| 10 |  Bedford Town | 14 | -2 | 22 |
| 11 |  AFC Telford United | 16 | -4 | 22 |
| 12 |  Spalding United | 15 | +3 | 21 |
| 13 |  Chorley | 15 | -1 | 20 |
| 14 |  Worksop Town | 15 | -1 | 20 |
| 15 |  Hebburn Town | 15 | -8 | 20 |
| 16 |  Merthyr Town | 16 | -1 | 19 |
| 17 |  Brackley Town | 16 | -9 | 19 |
| 18 |  Harborough Town | 14 | -4 | 17 |
| 19 |  Scarborough Athletic | 15 | -1 | 16 |
| 20 |  Marine | 14 | -2 | 16 |
| 21 |  Radcliffe | 15 | -8 | 16 |
| 22 |  Darlington 1883 | 15 | -9 | 11 |
| 23 |  Southport | 15 | -15 | 10 |
| 24 |  Spennymoor Town | 15 | -15 | 10 |
More National League North predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Merthyr Town vs Morecambe?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 58% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.55.
Who will win Merthyr Town vs Morecambe?
On our numbers Merthyr Town have a 40% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Morecambe 37%.
How many goals will there be in Merthyr Town vs Morecambe?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 40% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
When is Merthyr Town vs Morecambe?
Merthyr Town vs Morecambe (National League North) kicks off on Saturday 24 October 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.