National League North · England · Wolf Competitions StadiumSouth Shields vs Buxton prediction & analysis
Under 3.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.60 · bookmaker 1.53 · Lost ✗
Value bet: Buxton to win @ 3.00 – our chance 36% vs 33% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: South Shields 1.6 – 1.4 Buxton expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
South Shields hold the edge on home soil with a 44% chance of winning, against 36% for Buxton.
South Shields have taken 11 points from their last 6 matches (3W 2D 1L), scoring 2.0 and conceding 1.5 per game. Buxton have 15 points from their last 6 (5W 0D 1L), averaging 2.3 scored and 1.3 conceded. Buxton come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 3.0 goals (1.6 for South Shields, 1.4 for Buxton). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 59% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on this projection. Most likely scores: 1–1 (11%), 2–1 (9%), 1–2 (8%).
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals at a 62% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.53 is close to our fair price of 1.60. For a bigger price, Buxton to win at 3.00 is our value angle (36% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | South Shields to win ✓ | 44% | 2.27 | 2.05 |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✓ | 80% | 1.25 | 1.22 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✗ | 61% | 1.63 | 1.53 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 80% | 1.25 | 1.17 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✓ | 59% | 1.70 | 1.60 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✗ | 62% | 1.60 | 1.53 |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✗ | 39% | 2.54 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT South Shields / FT South Shields ✓ | 25% | 3.97 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 2–1 ✗ | 9% | 11.24 | – |
Form
South Shields – last 6
| 19 Sep | vs Witton Albion | 7–0 | W |
| 12 Sep | @ Hereford | 0–6 | L |
| 8 Sep | vs Marine | 2–1 | W |
| 5 Sep | @ Hednesford Town | 1–0 | W |
| 31 Aug | vs Spalding United | 1–1 | D |
| 22 Aug | vs Merthyr Town | 1–1 | D |
Buxton – last 6
| 19 Sep | vs Ashton United | 1–0 | W |
| 12 Sep | vs Chester | 3–1 | W |
| 8 Sep | vs Brackley Town | 5–0 | W |
| 5 Sep | @ Morecambe | 0–4 | L |
| 31 Aug | vs Merthyr Town | 2–1 | W |
| 28 Aug | @ Oxford City | 3–2 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between South Shields and Buxton.
National League North table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  South Shields | 15 | +10 | 32 |
| 2 |  Hereford | 15 | +14 | 29 |
| 3 |  Oxford City | 14 | +15 | 27 |
| 4 |  Macclesfield | 13 | +10 | 27 |
| 5 |  Hednesford Town | 16 | +8 | 27 |
| 6 |  King's Lynn Town | 16 | +6 | 27 |
| 7 |  Buxton | 16 | +5 | 27 |
| 8 |  Chester | 15 | +4 | 26 |
| 9 |  Morecambe | 15 | +5 | 23 |
| 10 |  Bedford Town | 14 | -2 | 22 |
| 11 |  AFC Telford United | 16 | -4 | 22 |
| 12 |  Spalding United | 15 | +3 | 21 |
| 13 |  Chorley | 15 | -1 | 20 |
| 14 |  Worksop Town | 15 | -1 | 20 |
| 15 |  Hebburn Town | 15 | -8 | 20 |
| 16 |  Merthyr Town | 16 | -1 | 19 |
| 17 |  Brackley Town | 16 | -9 | 19 |
| 18 |  Harborough Town | 14 | -4 | 17 |
| 19 |  Scarborough Athletic | 15 | -1 | 16 |
| 20 |  Marine | 14 | -2 | 16 |
| 21 |  Radcliffe | 15 | -8 | 16 |
| 22 |  Darlington 1883 | 15 | -9 | 11 |
| 23 |  Southport | 15 | -15 | 10 |
| 24 |  Spennymoor Town | 15 | -15 | 10 |
More National League North predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for South Shields vs Buxton?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 62% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.53.
Who will win South Shields vs Buxton?
On our numbers South Shields have a 44% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Buxton 36%.
How many goals will there be in South Shields vs Buxton?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 59% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on our projection.
When is South Shields vs Buxton?
South Shields vs Buxton (National League North) kicks off on Saturday 26 September 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Wolf Competitions Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.