National League North · England · Haig AvenueSouthport vs Spennymoor Town prediction & analysis
Over 1.5 goals
Strong pick · fair odds 1.28 · bookmaker 1.28 · Won ✓
Value bet: Spennymoor Town to win @ 2.88 – our chance 37% vs 35% implied by the price (edge +6%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Southport 1.6 – 1.5 Spennymoor Town expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Very little separates Southport and Spennymoor Town on our numbers – 41% for the home side, 37% for the visitors and 23% for a draw. This is a match where the price matters more than the pick.
Southport have taken 3 points from their last 6 matches (1W 0D 5L), scoring 0.5 and conceding 2.2 per game. Spennymoor Town have 5 points from their last 6 (1W 2D 3L), averaging 1.5 scored and 1.7 conceded.
We expect around 3.2 goals (1.6 for Southport, 1.5 for Spennymoor Town). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 61% likely and both teams score 63% of the time on this projection. Most likely scores: 1–1 (11%), 2–1 (9%), 1–2 (8%).
In their last 1 meeting, Southport have won 1, Spennymoor Town have won 0 and 0 ended level, with an average of 2.0 goals per game.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals at a 78% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.28 is close to our fair price of 1.28. For a bigger price, Spennymoor Town to win at 2.88 is our value angle (37% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Southport to win ✗ | 41% | 2.46 | 2.10 |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✗ | 77% | 1.29 | 1.25 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 63% | 1.58 | 1.67 ▲ |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 78% | 1.28 | 1.28 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✓ | 61% | 1.63 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✗ | 66% | 1.52 | 1.33 |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✗ | 38% | 2.61 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Southport / FT Southport ✗ | 24% | 4.18 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 2–1 ✗ | 9% | 11.64 | – |
Form
Southport – last 6
| 19 Sep | @ Morecambe | 0–2 | L |
| 12 Sep | @ Worksop Town | 0–2 | L |
| 8 Sep | vs Morecambe | 2–1 | W |
| 5 Sep | @ Spalding United | 0–2 | L |
| 31 Aug | vs Hereford | 0–1 | L |
| 29 Aug | @ Scarborough Athletic | 1–5 | L |
Spennymoor Town – last 6
| 19 Sep | @ AFC Emley | 4–0 | W |
| 12 Sep | vs Macclesfield | 1–1 | D |
| 8 Sep | vs Spalding United | 1–3 | L |
| 5 Sep | @ Hereford | 1–2 | L |
| 31 Aug | vs Hednesford Town | 1–1 | D |
| 29 Aug | @ Bedford Town | 1–3 | L |
Head to head
| 10 Mar 2026 | Southport v Spennymoor Town | 2–0 |
National League North table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  South Shields | 15 | +10 | 32 |
| 2 |  Hereford | 15 | +14 | 29 |
| 3 |  Oxford City | 14 | +15 | 27 |
| 4 |  Macclesfield | 13 | +10 | 27 |
| 5 |  Hednesford Town | 16 | +8 | 27 |
| 6 |  King's Lynn Town | 16 | +6 | 27 |
| 7 |  Buxton | 16 | +5 | 27 |
| 8 |  Chester | 15 | +4 | 26 |
| 9 |  Morecambe | 15 | +5 | 23 |
| 10 |  Bedford Town | 14 | -2 | 22 |
| 11 |  AFC Telford United | 16 | -4 | 22 |
| 12 |  Spalding United | 15 | +3 | 21 |
| 13 |  Chorley | 15 | -1 | 20 |
| 14 |  Worksop Town | 15 | -1 | 20 |
| 15 |  Hebburn Town | 15 | -8 | 20 |
| 16 |  Merthyr Town | 16 | -1 | 19 |
| 17 |  Brackley Town | 16 | -9 | 19 |
| 18 |  Harborough Town | 14 | -4 | 17 |
| 19 |  Scarborough Athletic | 15 | -1 | 16 |
| 20 |  Marine | 14 | -2 | 16 |
| 21 |  Radcliffe | 15 | -8 | 16 |
| 22 |  Darlington 1883 | 15 | -9 | 11 |
| 23 |  Southport | 15 | -15 | 10 |
| 24 |  Spennymoor Town | 15 | -15 | 10 |
More National League North predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Southport vs Spennymoor Town?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Southport vs Spennymoor Town?
On our numbers Southport have a 41% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Spennymoor Town 37%.
How many goals will there be in Southport vs Spennymoor Town?
We expect about 3.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 61% likely and both teams score 63% of the time on our projection.
When is Southport vs Spennymoor Town?
Southport vs Spennymoor Town (National League North) kicks off on Saturday 26 September 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Haig Avenue.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.