National League · England · Victoria ParkHartlepool vs Tamworth prediction & analysis
Both teams to score
Good pick · fair odds 1.49 · bookmaker 1.50 · Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Hartlepool 1.7 – 1.5 Tamworth expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Very little separates Hartlepool and Tamworth on our numbers – 42% for the home side, 36% for the visitors and 22% for a draw. This is a match where the price matters more than the pick.
Hartlepool have taken 0 points from their last 6 matches (0W 0D 6L), scoring 0.5 and conceding 2.2 per game. Tamworth have 6 points from their last 6 (2W 0D 4L), averaging 1.3 scored and 2.5 conceded. Tamworth come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 3.2 goals (1.7 for Hartlepool, 1.5 for Tamworth). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 63% likely and both teams score 67% of the time on this projection. Most likely scores: 1–1 (10%), 2–1 (9%), 1–2 (8%).
Our pick is Both teams to score at a 67% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.50 is close to our fair price of 1.49.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Hartlepool to win ✗ | 42% | 2.38 | 2.20 |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✓ | 78% | 1.29 | 1.29 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✗ | 67% | 1.49 | 1.50 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✗ | 83% | 1.20 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✗ | 63% | 1.60 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 60% | 1.68 | – |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✗ | 38% | 2.64 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Hartlepool / FT Hartlepool ✗ | 25% | 4.00 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 2–1 ✗ | 9% | 11.49 | – |
Form
Hartlepool – last 6
| 29 Sep | vs Harrogate Town | 0–1 | L |
| 26 Sep | @ Scunthorpe | 1–4 | L |
| 19 Sep | vs Worthing | 1–3 | L |
| 16 Sep | @ Altrincham | 1–2 | L |
| 11 Sep | @ Kidderminster Harriers | 0–2 | L |
| 8 Sep | vs Everton U21 | 0–1 | L |
Tamworth – last 6
| 30 Sep | vs Sutton Utd | 2–0 | W |
| 26 Sep | @ Aldershot Town | 1–5 | L |
| 19 Sep | vs Wealdstone | 2–1 | W |
| 15 Sep | @ Southend | 1–3 | L |
| 12 Sep | @ Harrogate Town | 1–3 | L |
| 9 Sep | vs Middlesbrough U21 | 1–3 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Hartlepool and Tamworth.
National League table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Boreham Wood | 16 | +27 | 44 |
| 2 |  Harrogate Town | 16 | +11 | 32 |
| 3 |  Southend | 16 | +11 | 29 |
| 4 |  AFC Fylde | 16 | +6 | 29 |
| 5 |  Yeovil Town | 16 | +15 | 28 |
| 6 |  Worthing | 16 | +7 | 28 |
| 7 |  Altrincham | 16 | 0 | 28 |
| 8 |  Carlisle | 16 | +9 | 26 |
| 9 |  Barrow | 15 | +7 | 25 |
| 10 |  FC Halifax Town | 16 | +8 | 24 |
| 11 |  Sutton Utd | 16 | -1 | 24 |
| 12 |  Woking | 16 | +1 | 21 |
| 13 |  Kidderminster Harriers | 16 | +1 | 21 |
| 14 |  Aldershot Town | 16 | 0 | 21 |
| 15 |  AFC Hornchurch | 16 | -8 | 21 |
| 16 |  Forest Green | 14 | -1 | 19 |
| 17 |  Eastleigh | 16 | -6 | 19 |
| 18 |  Wealdstone | 16 | -6 | 18 |
| 19 |  Boston United | 16 | -8 | 18 |
| 20 |  Tamworth | 15 | -7 | 17 |
| 21 |  Hartlepool | 16 | -9 | 15 |
| 22 |  Solihull Moors | 16 | -21 | 13 |
| 23 |  Scunthorpe | 15 | -11 | 10 |
| 24 |  Gateshead | 15 | -25 | 4 |
More National League predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Hartlepool vs Tamworth?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 67% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.50.
Who will win Hartlepool vs Tamworth?
On our numbers Hartlepool have a 42% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Tamworth 36%.
How many goals will there be in Hartlepool vs Tamworth?
We expect about 3.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 63% likely and both teams score 67% of the time on our projection.
When is Hartlepool vs Tamworth?
Hartlepool vs Tamworth (National League) kicks off on Saturday 3 October 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Victoria Park.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.