Very strong pick · fair odds 1.22 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.20Odds
2
Value bet: MSV Duisburg to win @ 2.20 – our chance 49% vs 45% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultMSV Duisburg to win ✓49% · @2.20
Double chanceEither team to win ✓80% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓65% · @1.50
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓82% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.11
Verl vs MSV Duisburg preview and prediction
The match
Verl host MSV Duisburg in the 3. Liga on Saturday 15 August, with kick-off at 15:30 (WAT) at Sportclub Arena. Verl are 17th with 12 points from 13 games (in the bottom half), while MSV Duisburg sit 2nd on 29 points (in the top four). A gap of 17 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Verl's last 5: LLWLW Most recently they lost to Alemannia Aachen 1–4 away. They average 1.3 scored and 2.2 conceded.
MSV Duisburg's last 5: WDDLW Most recently they beat SV Meppen 3–0 at home. On the road they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 4. They average 1.8 scored and 1.0 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
MSV Duisburg arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.8 points a game against 1.0.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.5 goals: 1.5 for Verl and 2.0 for MSV Duisburg. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 62% likely and both teams score in 65% of our simulations.
Value angle: MSV Duisburg to win at 2.20 – 49% on our numbers against 45% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 82% chance at odds of 1.20. Predicted score: Verl 1–1 MSV Duisburg. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Verl31%fair 3.27 · @2.95
Draw20%fair 4.90 · @3.60
MSV Duisburg49%fair 2.04 · @2.20
3.49Expected goals
1.52Verl xG
1.97MSV Duisburg xG
65%Both score
62%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–19%
1–29%
2–17%
2–27%
0–16%
0–26%
From our goals model: Verl 1.5 – 2.0 MSV Duisburg expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
MSV Duisburg to win✓
49%
2.04
2.20 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
80%
1.26
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
65%
1.53
1.50
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
82%
1.22
1.20
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
62%
1.60
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
59%
1.70
1.48
Half-time result
MSV Duisburg ahead at half-time✗
38%
2.65
–
Half-time / full-time
HT MSV Duisburg / FT MSV Duisburg✗
30%
3.34
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
11.11
–
Form
Verl – last 6
LLWLWL
9 Aug
@ Alemannia Aachen
1–4
L
1 Aug
@ RB Leipzig
0–4
L
26 Jul
vs Bremer SV
6–1
W
18 Jul
@ VfL Wolfsburg
0–3
L
15 Jul
@ Paderborn II
1–0
W
9 May
@ Rot-Weiß Essen
0–1
L
1.3Scored / game
2.2Conceded / game
33%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
MSV Duisburg – last 6
WDDLWW
8 Aug
vs SV Meppen
3–0
W
1 Aug
@ Sparta Rotterdam
0–0
D
25 Jul
@ Arminia Bielefeld
1–1
D
22 Jul
vs Beerschot VA
2–4
L
18 Jul
@ Bonner SC
4–1
W
12 Jul
@ FC OSS
1–0
W
1.8Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Verl and MSV Duisburg.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 82% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Verl vs MSV Duisburg?
On our numbers Verl have a 31% chance of winning, the draw 20% and MSV Duisburg 49%.
How many goals will there be in Verl vs MSV Duisburg?
We expect about 3.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 62% likely and both teams score 65% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Verl vs MSV Duisburg?
Our predicted score is Verl 1–1 MSV Duisburg, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.5 goals in total.
When is Verl vs MSV Duisburg?
Verl vs MSV Duisburg (3. Liga) kicks off on Saturday 15 August 2026 at 15:30 (West Africa Time) at Sportclub Arena.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
