Good pick · fair odds 1.70 · bookmaker 1.80 · Lost ✗
5/10Rating
1.80Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultPiratas to win ✓71% · @1.15
Double chancePiratas or draw ✓87% · @1.03
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗59% · @1.80
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓82% · fair 1.21
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–0 ✗11% · fair 8.87
Piratas vs Tepatitlán preview and prediction
The match
Piratas host Tepatitlán in the Liga De Expansión MX on Sunday 18 October, with kick-off at 02:00 (WAT). Piratas are 4th with 25 points from 15 games (in the top four), while Tepatitlán sit 16th on 7 points (in the bottom three). A gap of 18 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Piratas's last 5: LWLWD Most recently they lost to Tlaxcala 2–4 away. At home they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 3. Goals have not been a problem: 2.2 per game.
Tepatitlán's last 5: LDWLL Most recently they lost to Tapatío 1–4 away. They average 1.0 scored and 2.7 conceded.
Piratas arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.7 points a game against 0.7.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.2 goals: 2.3 for Piratas and 0.9 for Tepatitlán. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 61% and both teams to score at 59%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 59% chance at odds of 1.80, above our fair price of 1.70, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Piratas 2–1 Tepatitlán. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Piratas71%fair 1.40 · @1.15
Draw16%fair 6.44 · @7.00
Tepatitlán13%fair 7.56 · @13.00
3.17Expected goals
2.32Piratas xG
0.85Tepatitlán xG
59%Both score
61%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–011%
1–010%
2–110%
3–09%
1–18%
3–17%
From our goals model: Piratas 2.3 – 0.9 Tepatitlán expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Piratas to win✓
71%
1.40
1.15
Double chance
Piratas or draw✓
87%
1.15
1.03
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
59%
1.70
1.80 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
82%
1.21
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
61%
1.63
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
61%
1.64
–
Half-time result
Piratas ahead at half-time✓
51%
1.95
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Piratas / FT Piratas✓
47%
2.14
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–0✗
11%
8.87
–
Form
Piratas – last 6
LWLWDW
10 Oct
@ Tlaxcala
2–4
L
4 Oct
vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca
4–0
W
25 Sep
@ Mineros de Zacatecas
0–3
L
19 Sep
vs Venados FC
2–1
W
11 Sep
@ Cruz Azul Hidalgo
1–1
D
6 Sep
vs Correcaminos Uat
4–1
W
2.2Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Tepatitlán – last 6
LDWLLL
14 Oct
@ Tapatío
1–4
L
10 Oct
vs Monarcas
1–1
D
3 Oct
vs CDS Tampico Madero
3–1
W
19 Sep
vs Mineros de Zacatecas
0–1
L
13 Sep
@ Venados FC
0–5
L
4 Sep
vs Dorados
1–4
L
1.0Scored / game
2.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Piratas and Tepatitlán.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 59% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.80.
Who will win Piratas vs Tepatitlán?
On our numbers Piratas have a 71% chance of winning, the draw 16% and Tepatitlán 13%.
How many goals will there be in Piratas vs Tepatitlán?
We expect about 3.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 61% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Piratas vs Tepatitlán?
Our predicted score is Piratas 2–1 Tepatitlán, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.2 goals in total.
When is Piratas vs Tepatitlán?
Piratas vs Tepatitlán (Liga De Expansión MX) kicks off on Sunday 18 October 2026 at 02:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
