Double chanceLeones Negros UDG or draw ✗91% · @1.08
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓60% · @1.70
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓84% · fair 1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–0 ✗12% · fair 8.59
Leones Negros UDG vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca preview and prediction
The match
Leones Negros UDG host Alebrijes de Oaxaca in the Liga De Expansión MX on Sunday 18 October, with kick-off at 19:00 (WAT) at Estadio Jalisco. Leones Negros UDG are 2nd with 30 points from 15 games (in the top four), while Alebrijes de Oaxaca sit 9th on 22 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
Leones Negros UDG's last 5: DWWLD Most recently they drew with Venados FC 1–1 away. They are scoring freely – 2.3 goals a game.
Alebrijes de Oaxaca's last 5: WLLLW Most recently they beat Correcaminos Uat 2–1 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 3 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Leones Negros UDG arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.8 points a game against 1.0.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 28 March 2026, finished Alebrijes de Oaxaca 1–1 Leones Negros UDG.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.3 goals: 2.4 for Leones Negros UDG and 0.8 for Alebrijes de Oaxaca. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 63% and both teams to score at 60%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Our pre-match pick was Leones Negros UDG to win – a 72% chance at odds of 1.30. Predicted score: Leones Negros UDG 2–0 Alebrijes de Oaxaca. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Leones Negros UDG72%fair 1.39 · @1.30
Draw19%fair 5.14 · @4.80
Alebrijes de Oaxaca9%fair 11.68 · @7.00
3.25Expected goals
2.45Leones Negros UDG xG
0.80Alebrijes de Oaxaca xG
60%Both score
63%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–012%
3–010%
1–09%
2–19%
3–18%
1–18%
From our goals model: Leones Negros UDG 2.4 – 0.8 Alebrijes de Oaxaca expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Leones Negros UDG vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca?
Our pick is Leones Negros UDG to win with a 72% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Leones Negros UDG vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca?
On our numbers Leones Negros UDG have a 72% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Alebrijes de Oaxaca 9%.
How many goals will there be in Leones Negros UDG vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca?
We expect about 3.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 63% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Leones Negros UDG vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca?
Our predicted score is Leones Negros UDG 2–0 Alebrijes de Oaxaca, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.3 goals in total.
When is Leones Negros UDG vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca?
Leones Negros UDG vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca (Liga De Expansión MX) kicks off on Sunday 18 October 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Jalisco.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
