Very strong pick · fair odds 1.14 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.20Odds
1
Value bet: Monarcas to win @ 1.76 – our chance 66% vs 57% implied by the price (edge +16%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultMonarcas to win ✓66% · @1.76
Double chanceMonarcas or draw ✓87% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓54% · @1.70
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓76% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–0 ✗13% · fair 7.94
Monarcas vs CA La Paz preview and prediction
The match
CA La Paz travel to Estadio Morelos in the Liga De Expansión MX on Sunday 26 July (02:00 WAT) to face Monarcas. Monarcas are 3rd with 26 points from 15 games (in the top four), while CA La Paz sit 1st on 30 points (top of the table).
Form guide
Monarcas's last 5: DLWLL Most recently they drew with Cruz Azul 3–3 at home. At home they have won 1 and lost 0 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
CA La Paz's last 5: DLLDD Most recently they drew with FC Juarez 2–2 away. On the road they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 4. They average 1.0 scored and 1.8 conceded.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 1 March 2026, finished Monarcas 1–0 CA La Paz.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.8 goals: 2.0 for Monarcas and 0.8 for CA La Paz. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 53%, both teams to score at 54%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Monarcas 66%, draw 21%, CA La Paz 13%.
Safer route: Monarcas or draw (87%) at 1.20.
Both teams to score: yes (54%) at 1.70.
Value angle: Monarcas to win at 1.76 – 66% on our numbers against 57% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Monarcas or draw – a 87% chance at odds of 1.20, above our fair price of 1.14, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Monarcas 2–0 CA La Paz. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Monarcas66%fair 1.51 · @1.76
Draw21%fair 4.68 · @3.70
CA La Paz13%fair 7.94 · @4.30
2.78Expected goals
2.02Monarcas xG
0.77CA La Paz xG
54%Both score
53%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–013%
1–012%
2–110%
1–110%
3–08%
3–16%
From our goals model: Monarcas 2.0 – 0.8 CA La Paz expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Monarcas or draw with a 87% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Monarcas vs CA La Paz?
On our numbers Monarcas have a 66% chance of winning, the draw 21% and CA La Paz 13%.
How many goals will there be in Monarcas vs CA La Paz?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 53% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Monarcas vs CA La Paz?
Our predicted score is Monarcas 2–0 CA La Paz, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Monarcas vs CA La Paz?
Monarcas vs CA La Paz (Liga De Expansión MX) kicks off on Sunday 26 July 2026 at 02:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Morelos.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
