Value bet: Venados FC to win @ 2.28 – our chance 47% vs 44% implied by the price (edge +6%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultVenados FC to win ✓47% · @2.28
Double chanceEither team to win ✓79% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗60% · @1.70
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓73% · @1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗11% · fair 9.47
Venados FC vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca preview and prediction
The match
Venados FC host Alebrijes de Oaxaca in the Liga De Expansión MX on Sunday 26 July, with kick-off at 00:00 (WAT) at Estadio Carlos Iturralde Rivero. Venados FC are 6th with 25 points from 15 games (in the top half), while Alebrijes de Oaxaca sit 9th on 22 points (in the bottom half). Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Venados FC's last 5: DWDWL Most recently they drew with Tlaxcala 2–2 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Alebrijes de Oaxaca's last 5: WLLDL Most recently they beat Correcaminos Uat 3–1 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 2.2 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.5 for Venados FC and 1.2 for Alebrijes de Oaxaca. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 49%, both teams to score at 60%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Venados FC 47%, draw 21%, Alebrijes de Oaxaca 32%.
Both teams to score: yes (60%) at 1.70.
Value angle: Venados FC to win at 2.28 – 47% on our numbers against 44% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 73% chance at odds of 1.30. Predicted score: Venados FC 1–1 Alebrijes de Oaxaca. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Venados FC47%fair 2.15 · @2.28
Draw21%fair 4.77 · @3.40
Alebrijes de Oaxaca32%fair 3.08 · @2.96
2.63Expected goals
1.47Venados FC xG
1.16Alebrijes de Oaxaca xG
60%Both score
49%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
1–011%
2–19%
0–18%
2–08%
0–07%
From our goals model: Venados FC 1.5 – 1.2 Alebrijes de Oaxaca expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Venados FC to win✓
47%
2.15
2.28 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
79%
1.27
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
60%
1.68
1.70
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
73%
1.37
1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
51%
1.96
1.85
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
73%
1.38
1.30
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
43%
2.34
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Venados FC / FT Venados FC✗
26%
3.84
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
11%
9.47
–
Form
Venados FC – last 6
DWDWLL
19 Apr
@ Tlaxcala
2–2
D
12 Apr
vs Leones Negros UDG
2–1
W
6 Apr
@ CDS Tampico Madero
1–1
D
28 Mar
vs Atlante FC
4–1
W
21 Mar
@ Tepatitlán
0–2
L
7 Mar
vs Correcaminos Uat
0–1
L
1.5Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Alebrijes de Oaxaca – last 6
WLLDLW
18 Apr
@ Correcaminos Uat
3–1
W
11 Apr
vs CDS Tampico Madero
1–2
L
4 Apr
@ Tepatitlán
0–2
L
28 Mar
vs Leones Negros UDG
1–1
D
21 Mar
@ CA La Paz
0–4
L
14 Mar
vs Tapatío
4–3
W
1.5Scored / game
2.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Venados FC and Alebrijes de Oaxaca.
What is the prediction for Venados FC vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Venados FC vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca?
On our numbers Venados FC have a 47% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Alebrijes de Oaxaca 32%.
How many goals will there be in Venados FC vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Venados FC vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca?
Our predicted score is Venados FC 1–1 Alebrijes de Oaxaca, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Venados FC vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca?
Venados FC vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca (Liga De Expansión MX) kicks off on Sunday 26 July 2026 at 00:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Carlos Iturralde Rivero.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
