Baglan Dragons vs Aberystwyth Town Prediction, Odds & Analysis – 24 Oct 2026

Quick tips for this match

ResultAberystwyth Town to win65% · @1.75

Double chanceAberystwyth Town or draw85% · @1.20

Both teams scoreBoth teams to score55% · @1.67

GoalsOver 1.5 goals76% · fair 1.32

Correct scoreCorrect score 0–113% · fair 7.98

Baglan Dragons vs Aberystwyth Town preview and prediction

The match

The FAW Championship sees Baglan Dragons take on Aberystwyth Town on Saturday 24 October, kicking off at 14:30 (WAT). Baglan Dragons are 5th with 20 points from 13 games (in the top half), while Aberystwyth Town sit 2nd on 25 points (in the top four).

Form guide

Baglan Dragons's last 5: WDWLL Most recently they beat Llantwit Fardre 3–1 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.7 scored and 1.3 conceded.

Aberystwyth Town's last 5: WLWDW Most recently they beat Prestatyn Town 5–1 at home. They are scoring freely – 2.5 goals a game.

Goals outlook

Our model expects about 2.8 goals: 0.8 for Baglan Dragons and 2.0 for Aberystwyth Town. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 52%, both teams to score at 55%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.

Betting angles

Win chances: Baglan Dragons 15%, draw 20%, Aberystwyth Town 65%.
Safer route: Aberystwyth Town or draw (85%) at 1.20.
Both teams to score: yes (55%) at 1.67.
Value angle: Aberystwyth Town to win at 1.75 – 65% on our numbers against 57% implied by the price.

Our prediction

Our pre-match pick was Aberystwyth Town or draw – a 85% chance at odds of 1.20, above our fair price of 1.17, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Baglan Dragons 0–1 Aberystwyth Town. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.

Win chances

Baglan Dragons15%fair 6.83 · @4.00

Draw20%fair 4.96 · @3.30

Aberystwyth Town65%fair 1.53 · @1.75

2.75Expected goals

0.79Baglan Dragons xG

1.96Aberystwyth Town xG

55%Both score

52%Over 2.5

Most likely scores

0–113%

0–212%

1–110%

1–210%

0–38%

0–06%

From our goals model: Baglan Dragons 0.8 – 2.0 Aberystwyth Town expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

Every market, with fair odds

Market	Most likely	Chance	Fair odds	Bookmaker
Match result	Aberystwyth Town to win	65%	1.53	1.75 ▲
Double chance	Aberystwyth Town or draw	85%	1.17	1.20
Both teams to score	Both teams to score	55%	1.82	1.67
Over/under 1.5 goals	Over 1.5 goals	76%	1.32	–
Over/under 2.5 goals	Over 2.5 goals	52%	1.93	–
Over/under 3.5 goals	Under 3.5 goals	70%	1.42	–
Half-time result	Aberystwyth Town ahead at half-time	46%	2.16	–
Half-time / full-time	HT Aberystwyth Town / FT Aberystwyth Town	41%	2.41	–
Correct score	Correct score 0–1	13%	7.98	–

Form

Baglan Dragons – last 6

WDWLLW

17 Oct	@ Llantwit Fardre	3–1	W
10 Oct	vs Pontypridd Town	1–1	D
2 Oct	@ llanelli AFC	2–1	W
25 Sep	vs Carmarthen Town	1–2	L
12 Sep	@ Cardiff Draconians	1–2	L
4 Sep	vs Afan Lido	2–1	W

1.7Scored / game

1.3Conceded / game

100%Both scored

83%Over 2.5

Aberystwyth Town – last 6

WLWDWW

17 Oct	vs Prestatyn Town	5–1	W
10 Oct	vs Caerau (Ely)	0–1	L
3 Oct	@ Pontypridd Town	3–1	W
25 Sep	vs Swansea University	0–0	D
12 Sep	@ Caerphilly Athletic	3–2	W
31 Aug	vs llanelli AFC	4–0	W

2.5Scored / game

0.8Conceded / game

50%Both scored

67%Over 2.5

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Pontypridd Town	13	8	3	2	+13	27
2	Aberystwyth Town	11	8	1	2	+18	25
3	Swansea University	11	7	3	1	+19	24
4	Caerau (Ely)	13	7	1	5	+1	22
5	Baglan Dragons	13	6	2	5	0	20
6	Ynyshir Albions	11	5	4	2	+7	19
7	Afan Lido	14	5	3	6	-2	18
8	Trethomas Bluebirds	13	4	5	4	+3	17
9	Treowen Stars	12	5	2	5	-1	17
10	Carmarthen Town	13	4	3	6	-6	15
11	Pontardawe Town	11	4	2	5	-1	14
12	Caerphilly Athletic	13	4	2	7	-7	14
13	Newport City	11	3	4	4	+4	13
14	Cardiff Draconians	11	3	3	5	-5	12
15	Llantwit Major	12	3	3	6	-12	12
16	llanelli AFC	14	0	3	11	-31	3

Team

Pts

+13

+18

+19

-2

-1

-6

-1

-7

-5

-12

-31

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Baglan Dragons vs Aberystwyth Town?

Our pick is Aberystwyth Town or draw with a 85% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.

Who will win Baglan Dragons vs Aberystwyth Town?

On our numbers Baglan Dragons have a 15% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Aberystwyth Town 65%.

How many goals will there be in Baglan Dragons vs Aberystwyth Town?

We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 52% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Baglan Dragons vs Aberystwyth Town?

Our predicted score is Baglan Dragons 0–1 Aberystwyth Town, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.

When is Baglan Dragons vs Aberystwyth Town?

Baglan Dragons vs Aberystwyth Town (FAW Championship) kicks off on Saturday 24 October 2026 at 14:30 (West Africa Time).

Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.

By day

Match result

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Exact outcomes