llanelli AFC vs Baglan Dragons prediction & analysis
63%
Footrivo pick
Both teams to score
Good pick · fair odds 1.59 · bookmaker 1.60 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.60Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultBaglan Dragons to win ✓46% · @2.05
Double chanceEither team to win ✓80% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓63% · @1.60
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓77% · fair 1.31
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗10% · fair 10.52
llanelli AFC vs Baglan Dragons preview and prediction
The match
llanelli AFC host Baglan Dragons in the FAW Championship on Friday 2 October, with kick-off at 19:30 (WAT) at Stebonheath Park. llanelli AFC are 16th with 3 points from 14 games (in the bottom three), while Baglan Dragons sit 5th on 20 points (in the top half). A gap of 17 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
llanelli AFC's last 5: LLLLD Most recently they lost to Llantwit Major 0–2 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
Baglan Dragons's last 5: LLWLW Most recently they lost to Carmarthen Town 1–2 at home. They average 1.3 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Baglan Dragons arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.5 points a game against 0.2.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.8 goals: 1.2 for llanelli AFC and 1.5 for Baglan Dragons. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 53%, both teams to score at 63%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: llanelli AFC 33%, draw 20%, Baglan Dragons 46%.
Both teams to score: yes (63%) at 1.60.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 63% chance at odds of 1.60. Predicted score: llanelli AFC 1–1 Baglan Dragons. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
llanelli AFC33%fair 3.00 · @2.90
Draw20%fair 4.89 · @3.40
Baglan Dragons46%fair 2.16 · @2.05
2.78Expected goals
1.25llanelli AFC xG
1.53Baglan Dragons xG
63%Both score
53%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
0–110%
1–29%
1–08%
2–17%
0–27%
From our goals model: llanelli AFC 1.2 – 1.5 Baglan Dragons expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Baglan Dragons to win✓
46%
2.16
2.05
Double chance
Either team to win✓
80%
1.26
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
63%
1.59
1.60
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
77%
1.31
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
53%
1.90
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
70%
1.44
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
41%
2.42
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Baglan Dragons / FT Baglan Dragons✗
26%
3.83
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
10%
10.52
–
Form
llanelli AFC – last 6
LLLLDL
26 Sep
@ Llantwit Major
0–2
L
11 Sep
@ Caerau (Ely)
0–3
L
4 Sep
vs Treowen Stars
0–2
L
31 Aug
@ Aberystwyth Town
0–4
L
28 Aug
vs Carmarthen Town
2–2
D
22 Aug
@ Cardiff Draconians
2–4
L
0.7Scored / game
2.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Baglan Dragons – last 6
LLWLWW
25 Sep
vs Carmarthen Town
1–2
L
12 Sep
@ Cardiff Draconians
1–2
L
4 Sep
vs Afan Lido
2–1
W
31 Aug
vs Caerphilly Athletic
0–1
L
28 Aug
vs Caerau (Ely)
3–1
W
21 Aug
@ Newport City
1–0
W
1.3Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between llanelli AFC and Baglan Dragons.
What is the prediction for llanelli AFC vs Baglan Dragons?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 63% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.60.
Who will win llanelli AFC vs Baglan Dragons?
On our numbers llanelli AFC have a 33% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Baglan Dragons 46%.
How many goals will there be in llanelli AFC vs Baglan Dragons?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 53% likely and both teams score 63% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for llanelli AFC vs Baglan Dragons?
Our predicted score is llanelli AFC 1–1 Baglan Dragons, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is llanelli AFC vs Baglan Dragons?
llanelli AFC vs Baglan Dragons (FAW Championship) kicks off on Friday 2 October 2026 at 19:30 (West Africa Time) at Stebonheath Park.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
