FAW Championship · WalesCaerau (Ely) vs Afan Lido prediction & analysis
Both teams to score
Good pick · fair odds 1.51 · bookmaker 1.57 · Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Caerau (Ely) 2.6 – 1.2 Afan Lido expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Caerau (Ely) are clear favourites at home with a 65% chance of winning, against 14% for Afan Lido.
Caerau (Ely) have taken 12 points from their last 6 matches (4W 0D 2L), scoring 2.5 and conceding 2.2 per game. Afan Lido have 8 points from their last 6 (2W 2D 2L), averaging 0.8 scored and 1.2 conceded. Caerau (Ely) come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 3.8 goals (2.6 for Caerau (Ely), 1.2 for Afan Lido). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 73% likely and both teams score 66% of the time on this projection. Most likely scores: 2–1 (9%), 3–1 (8%), 2–0 (7%).
Our pick is Both teams to score at a 66% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.57 is better than our fair price of 1.51, so there is value in it.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Caerau (Ely) to win ✓ | 65% | 1.54 | 1.36 |
| Double chance | Caerau (Ely) or draw ✓ | 86% | 1.16 | 1.11 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✗ | 66% | 1.51 | 1.57 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 89% | 1.12 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✗ | 73% | 1.36 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Over 3.5 goals ✗ | 53% | 1.88 | – |
| Half-time result | Caerau (Ely) ahead at half-time ✗ | 51% | 1.97 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Caerau (Ely) / FT Caerau (Ely) ✗ | 45% | 2.22 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 2–1 ✗ | 9% | 11.06 | – |
Form
Caerau (Ely) – last 6
| 26 Sep | @ Cardiff Draconians | 3–1 | W |
| 11 Sep | vs llanelli AFC | 3–0 | W |
| 31 Aug | vs Treowen Stars | 3–2 | W |
| 28 Aug | @ Baglan Dragons | 1–3 | L |
| 21 Aug | vs Swansea University | 1–5 | L |
| 14 Aug | @ Trethomas Bluebirds | 4–2 | W |
Afan Lido – last 6
| 25 Sep | vs Newport City | 0–0 | D |
| 11 Sep | @ Pontypridd Town | 1–0 | W |
| 4 Sep | @ Baglan Dragons | 1–2 | L |
| 31 Aug | vs Ynyshir Albions | 0–0 | D |
| 28 Aug | @ Trethomas Bluebirds | 2–5 | L |
| 21 Aug | vs Pontardawe Town | 1–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Caerau (Ely) and Afan Lido.
FAW Championship table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Pontypridd Town | 13 | +13 | 27 |
| 2 |  Aberystwyth Town | 11 | +18 | 25 |
| 3 |  Swansea University | 11 | +19 | 24 |
| 4 |  Caerau (Ely) | 13 | +1 | 22 |
| 5 |  Baglan Dragons | 13 | 0 | 20 |
| 6 |  Ynyshir Albions | 11 | +7 | 19 |
| 7 |  Afan Lido | 14 | -2 | 18 |
| 8 |  Trethomas Bluebirds | 13 | +3 | 17 |
| 9 |  Treowen Stars | 12 | -1 | 17 |
| 10 |  Carmarthen Town | 13 | -6 | 15 |
| 11 |  Pontardawe Town | 11 | -1 | 14 |
| 12 |  Caerphilly Athletic | 13 | -7 | 14 |
| 13 |  Newport City | 11 | +4 | 13 |
| 14 |  Cardiff Draconians | 11 | -5 | 12 |
| 15 |  Llantwit Major | 12 | -12 | 12 |
| 16 |  llanelli AFC | 14 | -31 | 3 |
More FAW Championship predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Caerau (Ely) vs Afan Lido?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 66% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.57.
Who will win Caerau (Ely) vs Afan Lido?
On our numbers Caerau (Ely) have a 65% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Afan Lido 14%.
How many goals will there be in Caerau (Ely) vs Afan Lido?
We expect about 3.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 73% likely and both teams score 66% of the time on our projection.
When is Caerau (Ely) vs Afan Lido?
Caerau (Ely) vs Afan Lido (FAW Championship) kicks off on Friday 2 October 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.