Caerau (Ely) vs llanelli AFC preview and prediction
The match
Caerau (Ely) host llanelli AFC in the FAW Championship on Friday 11 September, with kick-off at 19:45 (WAT). Caerau (Ely) are 4th with 22 points from 13 games (in the top four), while llanelli AFC sit 16th on 3 points (in the bottom three). A gap of 19 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Caerau (Ely)'s last 5: WLLWD Most recently they beat Treowen Stars 3–2 at home. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have not been a problem: 2.2 per game.
llanelli AFC's last 5: LLDLL Most recently they lost to Treowen Stars 0–2 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 3 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Caerau (Ely) arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.2 points a game against 0.3.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 4.3 goals: 3.2 for Caerau (Ely) and 1.1 for llanelli AFC. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 80% likely and both teams score in 61% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Caerau (Ely) 74%, draw 19%, llanelli AFC 7%.
Both teams to score: yes (61%) at 1.62.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Caerau (Ely) to win – a 74% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Caerau (Ely) 3–1 llanelli AFC. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Caerau (Ely)74%fair 1.35 · @1.22
Draw19%fair 5.38 · @5.50
llanelli AFC7%fair 14.10 · @8.50
4.31Expected goals
3.17Caerau (Ely) xG
1.14llanelli AFC xG
61%Both score
80%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
3–18%
2–18%
3–07%
2–07%
4–16%
4–06%
From our goals model: Caerau (Ely) 3.2 – 1.1 llanelli AFC expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Caerau (Ely) to win✓
74%
1.35
1.22
Double chance
Caerau (Ely) or draw✓
93%
1.08
1.06
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
61%
1.64
1.62
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
93%
1.08
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
80%
1.24
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals✗
62%
1.60
–
Half-time result
Caerau (Ely) ahead at half-time✓
59%
1.69
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Caerau (Ely) / FT Caerau (Ely)✓
55%
1.82
–
Correct score
Correct score 3–1✗
8%
12.30
–
Form
Caerau (Ely) – last 6
WLLWDL
31 Aug
vs Treowen Stars
3–2
W
28 Aug
@ Baglan Dragons
1–3
L
21 Aug
vs Swansea University
1–5
L
14 Aug
@ Trethomas Bluebirds
4–2
W
7 Aug
vs Ynyshir Albions
1–1
D
1 Aug
@ Carmarthen Town
3–4
L
2.2Scored / game
2.8Conceded / game
100%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
llanelli AFC – last 6
LLDLLD
4 Sep
vs Treowen Stars
0–2
L
31 Aug
@ Aberystwyth Town
0–4
L
28 Aug
vs Carmarthen Town
2–2
D
22 Aug
@ Cardiff Draconians
2–4
L
15 Aug
@ Swansea University
0–3
L
7 Aug
vs Trethomas Bluebirds
1–1
D
0.8Scored / game
2.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Caerau (Ely) and llanelli AFC.
What is the prediction for Caerau (Ely) vs llanelli AFC?
Our pick is Caerau (Ely) to win with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Caerau (Ely) vs llanelli AFC?
On our numbers Caerau (Ely) have a 74% chance of winning, the draw 19% and llanelli AFC 7%.
How many goals will there be in Caerau (Ely) vs llanelli AFC?
We expect about 4.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 80% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Caerau (Ely) vs llanelli AFC?
Our predicted score is Caerau (Ely) 3–1 llanelli AFC, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 4.3 goals in total.
When is Caerau (Ely) vs llanelli AFC?
Caerau (Ely) vs llanelli AFC (FAW Championship) kicks off on Friday 11 September 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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