The Primera División Apertura sees Penarol take on Boston River on Saturday 18 July, kicking off at 20:00 (WAT). Penarol are 5th with 22 points from 13 games (in the top half), while Boston River sit 11th on 15 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
Penarol's last 5: DWLWD Most recently they drew with Racing Montevideo 1–1 away. They average 1.3 scored and 0.8 conceded.
Boston River's last 5: DDLLW Most recently they drew with Central Espanol 0–0 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Penarol arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.8 points a game against 0.8.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 26 March 2026, finished Boston River 0–2 Penarol.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.7 for Penarol and 0.7 for Boston River. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 47%, both teams to score at 53%. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Penarol 62%, draw 22%, Boston River 15%.
Both teams to score: yes (53%) at 1.95.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 74% chance at odds of 1.30. Predicted score: Penarol 1–0 Boston River. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Penarol62%fair 1.60 · @1.50
Draw22%fair 4.48 · @3.75
Boston River15%fair 6.54 · @6.50
2.47Expected goals
1.75Penarol xG
0.72Boston River xG
53%Both score
47%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–015%
2–013%
1–111%
2–19%
0–08%
3–08%
From our goals model: Penarol 1.7 – 0.7 Boston River expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Penarol vs Boston River?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Penarol vs Boston River?
On our numbers Penarol have a 62% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Boston River 15%.
How many goals will there be in Penarol vs Boston River?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 47% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Penarol vs Boston River?
Our predicted score is Penarol 1–0 Boston River, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Penarol vs Boston River?
Penarol vs Boston River (Primera División Apertura) kicks off on Saturday 18 July 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
