Progreso vs Deportivo Maldonado prediction & analysis
81%
Footrivo pick
Deportivo Maldonado or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.24 · bookmaker 1.22 · Lost ✗
9/10Rating
1.22Odds
2
Value bet: Deportivo Maldonado to win @ 1.82 – our chance 61% vs 55% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultDeportivo Maldonado to win ✗61% · @1.82
Double chanceDeportivo Maldonado or draw ✗81% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗55% · @1.85
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓75% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗14% · fair 7.38
Progreso vs Deportivo Maldonado preview and prediction
The match
Deportivo Maldonado travel to Parque Abraham Paladino in the Primera División Apertura on Saturday 18 July (16:30 WAT) to face Progreso. Progreso are 7th with 19 points from 13 games (in the top half), while Deportivo Maldonado sit 4th on 22 points (in the top four). Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Progreso's last 5: LLWLL Most recently they lost to Wanderers 0–2 away. At home they have won 0 and lost 3 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
Deportivo Maldonado's last 5: DWWDW Most recently they drew with Albion FC 1–1 at home. Goals have not been a problem: 2.3 per game.
Deportivo Maldonado arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.3 points a game against 0.5.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 0.8 for Progreso and 1.7 for Deportivo Maldonado. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 46%, both teams to score at 55%.
Safer route: Deportivo Maldonado or draw (81%) at 1.22.
Both teams to score: yes (55%) at 1.85.
Value angle: Deportivo Maldonado to win at 1.82 – 61% on our numbers against 55% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Deportivo Maldonado or draw – a 81% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Progreso 0–1 Deportivo Maldonado. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Progreso19%fair 5.25 · @4.10
Draw20%fair 4.95 · @3.40
Deportivo Maldonado61%fair 1.65 · @1.82
2.55Expected goals
0.82Progreso xG
1.73Deportivo Maldonado xG
55%Both score
46%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–114%
0–212%
1–111%
1–210%
0–08%
0–37%
From our goals model: Progreso 0.8 – 1.7 Deportivo Maldonado expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Deportivo Maldonado to win✗
61%
1.65
1.82 ▲
Double chance
Deportivo Maldonado or draw✗
81%
1.24
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
55%
1.82
1.85
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
71%
1.42
1.36
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
54%
1.84
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
75%
1.34
1.25
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
42%
2.37
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Deportivo Maldonado / FT Deportivo Maldonado✗
37%
2.73
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
14%
7.38
–
Form
Progreso – last 6
LLWLLL
11 Jul
@ Wanderers
0–2
L
7 Jun
vs Albion FC
1–2
L
30 May
@ Danubio
2–1
W
23 May
vs Atletico Torque
1–2
L
3 May
vs Cerro Largo
0–1
L
27 Apr
@ Defensor Sporting
0–1
L
0.7Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Deportivo Maldonado – last 6
DWWDWW
10 Jul
vs Albion FC
1–1
D
6 Jun
@ Atletico Torque
4–2
W
31 May
vs Club Nacional
3–0
W
24 May
@ Wanderers
1–1
D
18 May
vs Danubio
3–1
W
11 May
vs Boston River
2–1
W
2.3Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Progreso and Deportivo Maldonado.
What is the prediction for Progreso vs Deportivo Maldonado?
Our pick is Deportivo Maldonado or draw with a 81% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Progreso vs Deportivo Maldonado?
On our numbers Progreso have a 19% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Deportivo Maldonado 61%.
How many goals will there be in Progreso vs Deportivo Maldonado?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Progreso vs Deportivo Maldonado?
Our predicted score is Progreso 0–1 Deportivo Maldonado, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Progreso vs Deportivo Maldonado?
Progreso vs Deportivo Maldonado (Primera División Apertura) kicks off on Saturday 18 July 2026 at 16:30 (West Africa Time) at Parque Abraham Paladino.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
