Value bet: Lusitânia Lourosa to win @ 2.70 – our chance 39% vs 37% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultLusitânia Lourosa to win ✗39% · @2.70
Double chanceEither team to win ✗74% · @1.36
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓54% · @1.95
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗84% · fair 1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗14% · fair 7.34
Felgueiras 1932 vs Lusitânia Lourosa preview and prediction
The match
Felgueiras 1932 host Lusitânia Lourosa in the Segunda Liga on Sunday 25 October, with kick-off at 15:00 (WAT) at Estadio Dr. Machado de Matos. Felgueiras 1932 are 15th with 8 points from 10 games (in the bottom half), while Lusitânia Lourosa sit 4th on 19 points (in the top four).
Form guide
Felgueiras 1932's last 5: WLWLL Most recently they beat Fafe 1–0 at home. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 0.8 conceded.
Lusitânia Lourosa's last 5: WDWWW Most recently they beat Os Limianos 2–1 at home. On the road they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 3. They are scoring freely – 2.0 goals a game.
Lusitânia Lourosa arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.7 points a game against 1.5.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.1 goals: 1.0 for Felgueiras 1932 and 1.1 for Lusitânia Lourosa. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 66% likely.
Value angle: Lusitânia Lourosa to win at 2.70 – 39% on our numbers against 37% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 54% chance at odds of 1.95, above our fair price of 1.87, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Felgueiras 1932 1–1 Lusitânia Lourosa. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Felgueiras 193235%fair 2.86 · @2.50
Draw26%fair 3.91 · @2.88
Lusitânia Lourosa39%fair 2.53 · @2.70
2.07Expected goals
0.99Felgueiras 1932 xG
1.08Lusitânia Lourosa xG
54%Both score
34%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–114%
1–113%
0–013%
1–013%
0–27%
1–27%
From our goals model: Felgueiras 1932 1.0 – 1.1 Lusitânia Lourosa expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Lusitânia Lourosa to win✗
39%
2.53
2.70 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✗
74%
1.34
1.36
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
54%
1.87
1.95
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
61%
1.63
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
66%
1.52
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
84%
1.18
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
49%
2.04
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Draw / FT Draw✗
21%
4.77
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
14%
7.34
–
Form
Felgueiras 1932 – last 6
WLWLLW
18 Oct
vs Fafe
1–0
W
12 Oct
@ Benfica B
0–1
L
19 Sep
@ Naval 1893
2–0
W
12 Sep
vs Penafiel
1–2
L
6 Sep
@ Vizela
0–1
L
30 Aug
vs Chaves
2–1
W
1.0Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Lusitânia Lourosa – last 6
WDWWWW
18 Oct
vs Os Limianos
2–1
W
11 Oct
vs Chaves
1–1
D
20 Sep
@ Madalena
3–1
W
14 Sep
@ Sporting CP B
2–1
W
7 Sep
vs AVS
2–1
W
29 Aug
@ Academica
2–0
W
2.0Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Felgueiras 1932 and Lusitânia Lourosa.
What is the prediction for Felgueiras 1932 vs Lusitânia Lourosa?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 54% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.95.
Who will win Felgueiras 1932 vs Lusitânia Lourosa?
On our numbers Felgueiras 1932 have a 35% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Lusitânia Lourosa 39%.
How many goals will there be in Felgueiras 1932 vs Lusitânia Lourosa?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 34% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Felgueiras 1932 vs Lusitânia Lourosa?
Our predicted score is Felgueiras 1932 1–1 Lusitânia Lourosa, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is Felgueiras 1932 vs Lusitânia Lourosa?
Felgueiras 1932 vs Lusitânia Lourosa (Segunda Liga) kicks off on Sunday 25 October 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Dr. Machado de Matos.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
