Value bet: Lusitânia Lourosa to win @ 2.35 – our chance 45% vs 43% implied by the price (edge +6%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultLusitânia Lourosa to win ✗45% · @2.35
Double chanceEither team to win ✗78% · @1.33
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓52% · @1.83
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓74% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗11% · fair 9.45
Lusitânia Lourosa vs Chaves preview and prediction
The match
Lusitânia Lourosa host Chaves in the Segunda Liga on Sunday 11 October, with kick-off at 11:00 (WAT) at Estadio Do Lusitania. Lusitânia Lourosa are 4th with 19 points from 10 games (in the top four), while Chaves sit 17th on 8 points (in the bottom three).
Form guide
Lusitânia Lourosa's last 5: WWWWD Most recently they beat Madalena 3–1 away. They are scoring freely – 2.0 goals a game.
Chaves's last 5: LWWLD Most recently they lost to Farense 0–4 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 3 of their last 4. They average 1.2 scored and 1.8 conceded.
Lusitânia Lourosa arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.7 points a game against 1.2.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.4 for Lusitânia Lourosa and 1.2 for Chaves. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 47%, both teams to score at 52%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Value angle: Lusitânia Lourosa to win at 2.35 – 45% on our numbers against 43% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 74% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Lusitânia Lourosa 1–1 Chaves. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Lusitânia Lourosa45%fair 2.22 · @2.35
Draw22%fair 4.54 · @3.20
Chaves33%fair 3.04 · @2.80
2.61Expected goals
1.44Lusitânia Lourosa xG
1.17Chaves xG
52%Both score
47%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
1–011%
2–19%
0–19%
2–08%
0–07%
From our goals model: Lusitânia Lourosa 1.4 – 1.2 Chaves expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Lusitânia Lourosa to win✗
45%
2.22
2.35 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✗
78%
1.28
1.33
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
52%
1.92
1.83
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
72%
1.39
1.33
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
53%
1.87
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
74%
1.35
1.25
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
43%
2.33
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Lusitânia Lourosa / FT Lusitânia Lourosa✗
25%
3.94
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
11%
9.45
–
Form
Lusitânia Lourosa – last 6
WWWWDW
20 Sep
@ Madalena
3–1
W
14 Sep
@ Sporting CP B
2–1
W
7 Sep
vs AVS
2–1
W
29 Aug
@ Academica
2–0
W
22 Aug
vs Torreense
2–2
D
16 Aug
@ Amarante
1–0
W
2.0Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Chaves – last 6
LWWLDL
4 Oct
@ Farense
0–4
L
20 Sep
@ Guarda
3–2
W
13 Sep
vs Feirense
1–0
W
30 Aug
@ Felgueiras 1932
1–2
L
23 Aug
vs AVS
2–2
D
15 Aug
@ Sporting CP B
0–1
L
1.2Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Lusitânia Lourosa and Chaves.
What is the prediction for Lusitânia Lourosa vs Chaves?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Lusitânia Lourosa vs Chaves?
On our numbers Lusitânia Lourosa have a 45% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Chaves 33%.
How many goals will there be in Lusitânia Lourosa vs Chaves?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 47% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Lusitânia Lourosa vs Chaves?
Our predicted score is Lusitânia Lourosa 1–1 Chaves, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Lusitânia Lourosa vs Chaves?
Lusitânia Lourosa vs Chaves (Segunda Liga) kicks off on Sunday 11 October 2026 at 11:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Do Lusitania.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
