União de Leiria vs Academica prediction & analysis
83%
Footrivo pick
União de Leiria or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.20 · bookmaker 1.25 · Lost ✗
10/10Rating
1.25Odds
1
Value bet: União de Leiria to win @ 1.85 – our chance 62% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +15%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultUnião de Leiria to win ✗62% · @1.85
Double chanceUnião de Leiria or draw ✗83% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗56% · @1.75
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓79% · fair 1.27
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗11% · fair 9.30
União de Leiria vs Academica preview and prediction
The match
União de Leiria host Academica in the Segunda Liga on Sunday 11 October, with kick-off at 18:00 (WAT) at Estádio Dr. Magalhães Pessoa. União de Leiria are 5th with 17 points from 10 games (in the top half), while Academica sit 6th on 16 points (in the top half). Only 1 point separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
União de Leiria's last 5: WDWWW Most recently they beat O Elvas 2–0 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They are scoring freely – 2.0 goals a game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Academica's last 5: WLLLW Most recently they beat Real 4–1 away. On the road they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 1.7 conceded.
União de Leiria arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.2 points a game against 1.5.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.9 goals: 2.0 for União de Leiria and 0.9 for Academica. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 56% and both teams to score at 56%.
Betting angles
Win chances: União de Leiria 62%, draw 21%, Academica 17%.
Safer route: União de Leiria or draw (83%) at 1.25.
Both teams to score: yes (56%) at 1.75.
Value angle: União de Leiria to win at 1.85 – 62% on our numbers against 54% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was União de Leiria or draw – a 83% chance at odds of 1.25, above our fair price of 1.20, so there is value in it. Predicted score: União de Leiria 1–0 Academica. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
União de Leiria62%fair 1.60 · @1.85
Draw21%fair 4.81 · @3.30
Academica17%fair 5.93 · @3.60
2.92Expected goals
1.99União de Leiria xG
0.93Academica xG
56%Both score
56%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–011%
2–011%
1–110%
2–110%
3–07%
3–17%
From our goals model: União de Leiria 2.0 – 0.9 Academica expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
União de Leiria to win✗
62%
1.60
1.85 ▲
Double chance
União de Leiria or draw✗
83%
1.20
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
56%
1.79
1.75
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
79%
1.27
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
56%
1.79
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
67%
1.50
–
Half-time result
União de Leiria ahead at half-time✗
45%
2.22
–
Half-time / full-time
HT União de Leiria / FT União de Leiria✗
40%
2.52
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
11%
9.30
–
Form
União de Leiria – last 6
WDWWWL
19 Sep
@ O Elvas
2–0
W
13 Sep
@ Amarante
2–2
D
6 Sep
vs Portimonense
1–0
W
28 Aug
vs Tondela
2–0
W
22 Aug
@ Leixoes
4–2
W
15 Aug
vs Benfica B
1–2
L
2.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Academica – last 6
WLLLWW
18 Sep
@ Real
4–1
W
11 Sep
vs Benfica B
0–3
L
5 Sep
@ Penafiel
1–4
L
29 Aug
vs Lusitânia Lourosa
0–2
L
21 Aug
@ Tondela
2–0
W
14 Aug
vs Feirense
1–0
W
1.3Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between União de Leiria and Academica.
What is the prediction for União de Leiria vs Academica?
Our pick is União de Leiria or draw with a 83% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win União de Leiria vs Academica?
On our numbers União de Leiria have a 62% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Academica 17%.
How many goals will there be in União de Leiria vs Academica?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 56% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for União de Leiria vs Academica?
Our predicted score is União de Leiria 1–0 Academica, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is União de Leiria vs Academica?
União de Leiria vs Academica (Segunda Liga) kicks off on Sunday 11 October 2026 at 18:00 (West Africa Time) at Estádio Dr. Magalhães Pessoa.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
