Value bet: União de Leiria to win @ 2.40 – our chance 45% vs 42% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultUnião de Leiria to win ✗45% · @2.40
Double chanceEither team to win ✗77% · @1.36
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓53% · @1.75
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗82% · fair 1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗14% · fair 7.37
Amarante vs União de Leiria preview and prediction
The match
Amarante host União de Leiria in the Segunda Liga on Sunday 13 September, with kick-off at 15:30 (WAT) at Amarante Stadium. Amarante are 14th with 9 points from 10 games (in the bottom half), while União de Leiria sit 5th on 17 points (in the top half).
Form guide
Amarante's last 5: LWDLL Most recently they lost to Leixoes 1–3 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.5 per game.
União de Leiria's last 5: WWWLL Most recently they beat Portimonense 1–0 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.7 scored and 1.3 conceded.
União de Leiria arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.5 points a game against 0.7.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.2 goals: 1.0 for Amarante and 1.2 for União de Leiria. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 62% likely.
Betting angles
Win chances: Amarante 32%, draw 23%, União de Leiria 45%.
Both teams to score: yes (53%) at 1.75.
Value angle: União de Leiria to win at 2.40 – 45% on our numbers against 42% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 53% chance at odds of 1.75. Predicted score: Amarante 1–1 União de Leiria. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Amarante32%fair 3.13 · @2.80
Draw23%fair 4.26 · @2.90
União de Leiria45%fair 2.25 · @2.40
2.20Expected goals
0.97Amarante xG
1.23União de Leiria xG
53%Both score
38%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–114%
1–113%
0–011%
1–011%
0–28%
1–28%
From our goals model: Amarante 1.0 – 1.2 União de Leiria expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
União de Leiria to win✗
45%
2.25
2.40 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✗
77%
1.31
1.36
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
53%
1.90
1.75
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
65%
1.55
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
62%
1.61
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
82%
1.22
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
47%
2.11
–
Half-time / full-time
HT União de Leiria / FT União de Leiria✗
24%
4.17
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
14%
7.37
–
Form
Amarante – last 6
LWDLLL
6 Sep
@ Leixoes
1–3
L
30 Aug
vs Benfica B
1–0
W
22 Aug
@ Vizela
0–0
D
16 Aug
vs Lusitânia Lourosa
0–1
L
8 Aug
@ Tondela
1–2
L
1 Aug
@ Moreirense
0–2
L
0.5Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
União de Leiria – last 6
WWWLLL
6 Sep
vs Portimonense
1–0
W
28 Aug
vs Tondela
2–0
W
22 Aug
@ Leixoes
4–2
W
15 Aug
vs Benfica B
1–2
L
9 Aug
@ Vizela
0–1
L
28 Jul
@ Las Palmas
2–3
L
1.7Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Amarante and União de Leiria.
What is the prediction for Amarante vs União de Leiria?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 53% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.75.
Who will win Amarante vs União de Leiria?
On our numbers Amarante have a 32% chance of winning, the draw 23% and União de Leiria 45%.
How many goals will there be in Amarante vs União de Leiria?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 38% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Amarante vs União de Leiria?
Our predicted score is Amarante 1–1 União de Leiria, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is Amarante vs União de Leiria?
Amarante vs União de Leiria (Segunda Liga) kicks off on Sunday 13 September 2026 at 15:30 (West Africa Time) at Amarante Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
