Value bet: Lusitânia Lourosa to win @ 3.10 – our chance 35% vs 32% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultTorreense to win ✗41% · @2.22
Double chanceEither team to win ✗76% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓56% · @1.77
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗75% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗11% · fair 9.32
Lusitânia Lourosa vs Torreense preview and prediction
The match
Lusitânia Lourosa host Torreense in the Segunda Liga on Saturday 22 August, with kick-off at 18:00 (WAT). Lusitânia Lourosa are 4th with 19 points from 10 games (in the top four), while Torreense sit 13th on 10 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
Lusitânia Lourosa's last 5: WWLLD Most recently they beat Amarante 1–0 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 1.5 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Torreense's last 5: DLLDD Most recently they drew with Penafiel 2–2 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 4. They average 1.5 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.2 for Lusitânia Lourosa and 1.3 for Torreense. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 46%, both teams to score at 56%.
Value angle: Lusitânia Lourosa to win at 3.10 – 35% on our numbers against 32% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 75% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Lusitânia Lourosa 1–1 Torreense. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Lusitânia Lourosa35%fair 2.85 · @3.10
Draw24%fair 4.13 · @3.15
Torreense41%fair 2.45 · @2.22
2.50Expected goals
1.19Lusitânia Lourosa xG
1.31Torreense xG
56%Both score
46%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
0–111%
1–010%
1–28%
0–08%
2–18%
From our goals model: Lusitânia Lourosa 1.2 – 1.3 Torreense expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Torreense to win✗
41%
2.45
2.22
Double chance
Either team to win✗
76%
1.32
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
56%
1.79
1.77
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
70%
1.43
1.36
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
54%
1.84
1.73
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
75%
1.33
1.25
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
44%
2.27
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Torreense / FT Torreense✗
23%
4.40
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
11%
9.32
–
Form
Lusitânia Lourosa – last 6
WWLLDD
16 Aug
@ Amarante
1–0
W
10 Aug
vs FC Porto B
2–0
W
1 Aug
@ Paredes
2–4
L
1 Aug
vs Arouca
0–2
L
29 Jul
@ Leça
0–0
D
29 Jul
vs FC Porto B
3–3
D
1.3Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Torreense – last 6
DLLDDW
15 Aug
vs Penafiel
2–2
D
9 Aug
@ Farense
1–2
L
1 Aug
@ FC Porto
0–1
L
25 Jul
@ Estoril
0–0
D
18 Jul
@ Benfica B
1–1
D
15 Jul
vs Academica
5–0
W
1.5Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Lusitânia Lourosa and Torreense.
What is the prediction for Lusitânia Lourosa vs Torreense?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Lusitânia Lourosa vs Torreense?
On our numbers Lusitânia Lourosa have a 35% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Torreense 41%.
How many goals will there be in Lusitânia Lourosa vs Torreense?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Lusitânia Lourosa vs Torreense?
Our predicted score is Lusitânia Lourosa 1–1 Torreense, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Lusitânia Lourosa vs Torreense?
Lusitânia Lourosa vs Torreense (Segunda Liga) kicks off on Saturday 22 August 2026 at 18:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
