Value bet: Under 2.5 goals @ 1.85 – our chance 58% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultLeixoes to win ✗39% · @2.32
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓57% · @1.65
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗78% · @1.33
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗13% · fair 7.46
Leixoes vs União de Leiria preview and prediction
The match
Leixoes host União de Leiria in the Segunda Liga on Saturday 22 August, with kick-off at 11:00 (WAT). Leixoes are 12th with 11 points from 10 games (in the bottom half), while União de Leiria sit 5th on 17 points (in the top half).
Form guide
Leixoes's last 5: WLWWD Most recently they beat Tondela 1–0 at home. At home they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 3. They are scoring freely – 3.0 goals a game.
União de Leiria's last 5: LLLWD Most recently they lost to Benfica B 1–2 at home. They average 1.2 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Leixoes arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.2 points a game against 0.8.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 8 March 2026, finished Leixoes 1–4 União de Leiria.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.1 goals: 1.1 for Leixoes and 1.0 for União de Leiria. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 58% likely.
Betting angles
Win chances: Leixoes 39%, draw 24%, União de Leiria 36%.
Both teams to score: yes (57%) at 1.65.
Value angle: Under 2.5 goals at 1.85 – 58% on our numbers against 54% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 78% chance at odds of 1.33, above our fair price of 1.29, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Leixoes 1–1 União de Leiria. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Leixoes39%fair 2.53 · @2.32
Draw24%fair 4.15 · @3.20
União de Leiria36%fair 2.74 · @2.90
2.07Expected goals
1.07Leixoes xG
1.01União de Leiria xG
57%Both score
42%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–114%
1–013%
0–113%
0–013%
2–17%
2–07%
From our goals model: Leixoes 1.1 – 1.0 União de Leiria expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Leixoes vs União de Leiria?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.33.
Who will win Leixoes vs União de Leiria?
On our numbers Leixoes have a 39% chance of winning, the draw 24% and União de Leiria 36%.
How many goals will there be in Leixoes vs União de Leiria?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 42% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Leixoes vs União de Leiria?
Our predicted score is Leixoes 1–1 União de Leiria, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is Leixoes vs União de Leiria?
Leixoes vs União de Leiria (Segunda Liga) kicks off on Saturday 22 August 2026 at 11:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
