Value bet: Torreense to win @ 1.74 – our chance 67% vs 57% implied by the price (edge +16%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultTorreense to win ✗67% · @1.74
Double chanceTorreense or draw ✓89% · @1.13
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓50% · @1.90
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗78% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗18% · fair 5.52
Torreense vs Penafiel preview and prediction
The match
Torreense host Penafiel in the Segunda Liga on Saturday 15 August, with kick-off at 18:00 (WAT) at Estadio Manuel Marques. Torreense are 13th with 10 points from 10 games (in the bottom half), while Penafiel sit 1st on 22 points (top of the table). A gap of 12 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Torreense's last 5: LLDDW Most recently they lost to Farense 1–2 away. They average 1.2 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Penafiel's last 5: LLDLL Most recently they lost to Portimonense 0–1 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 1.8 conceded.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 4 May 2026, finished Torreense 3–2 Penafiel.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.3 goals: 1.7 for Torreense and 0.5 for Penafiel. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 42%, both teams to score at 50%.
Value angle: Torreense to win at 1.74 – 67% on our numbers against 57% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 78% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Torreense 1–0 Penafiel. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Torreense67%fair 1.50 · @1.74
Draw23%fair 4.41 · @3.40
Penafiel11%fair 9.28 · @4.55
2.25Expected goals
1.72Torreense xG
0.53Penafiel xG
50%Both score
42%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–018%
2–016%
0–011%
1–110%
3–09%
2–18%
From our goals model: Torreense 1.7 – 0.5 Penafiel expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Torreense vs Penafiel?
On our numbers Torreense have a 67% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Penafiel 11%.
How many goals will there be in Torreense vs Penafiel?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 42% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Torreense vs Penafiel?
Our predicted score is Torreense 1–0 Penafiel, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Torreense vs Penafiel?
Torreense vs Penafiel (Segunda Liga) kicks off on Saturday 15 August 2026 at 18:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Manuel Marques.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
