Value bet: Tondela to win @ 2.75 – our chance 40% vs 36% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultTondela to win ✗40% · @2.75
Double chanceEither team to win ✓75% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗58% · @1.70
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓77% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗12% · fair 8.20
Leixoes vs Tondela preview and prediction
The match
The Segunda Liga sees Leixoes take on Tondela on Sunday 16 August, kicking off at 15:30 (WAT) at Estádio do Mar. Leixoes are 12th with 11 points from 10 games (in the bottom half), while Tondela sit 7th on 16 points (in the top half).
Form guide
Leixoes's last 5: LWWDW Most recently they lost to Benfica B 0–1 away. At home they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 3. Goals have not been a problem: 3.2 per game.
Tondela's last 5: WLDLL Most recently they beat Amarante 2–1 at home. They average 1.2 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Leixoes arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.2 points a game against 1.2.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.3 goals: 1.1 for Leixoes and 1.2 for Tondela. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 43%, both teams to score at 58%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Leixoes 35%, draw 25%, Tondela 40%.
Both teams to score: yes (58%) at 1.70.
Value angle: Tondela to win at 2.75 – 40% on our numbers against 36% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 77% chance at odds of 1.28. Predicted score: Leixoes 1–1 Tondela. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Leixoes35%fair 2.84 · @2.50
Draw25%fair 4.07 · @3.05
Tondela40%fair 2.49 · @2.75
2.28Expected goals
1.09Leixoes xG
1.19Tondela xG
58%Both score
43%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
0–112%
1–011%
0–010%
1–28%
0–27%
From our goals model: Leixoes 1.1 – 1.2 Tondela expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Tondela to win✗
40%
2.49
2.75 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
75%
1.33
1.28
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
58%
1.72
1.70
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
68%
1.47
1.33
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
57%
1.77
1.77
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
77%
1.31
1.28
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
47%
2.15
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Tondela / FT Tondela✗
22%
4.60
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
12%
8.20
–
Form
Leixoes – last 6
LWWDWW
10 Aug
@ Benfica B
0–1
L
1 Aug
vs Casa Pia
6–2
W
29 Jul
vs Vizela
3–2
W
18 Jul
@ Nacional
3–3
D
17 Jul
@ Maritimo
5–1
W
17 May
vs Lusitânia Lourosa
2–1
W
3.2Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
83%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Tondela – last 6
WLDLLW
8 Aug
vs Amarante
2–1
W
1 Aug
@ Rio Ave
1–3
L
29 Jul
vs São João Ver
1–1
D
25 Jul
vs Beira-Mar
1–2
L
25 Jul
@ Famalicao
0–1
L
22 Jul
vs Academica
2–1
W
1.2Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Leixoes and Tondela.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Leixoes vs Tondela?
On our numbers Leixoes have a 35% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Tondela 40%.
How many goals will there be in Leixoes vs Tondela?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Leixoes vs Tondela?
Our predicted score is Leixoes 1–1 Tondela, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Leixoes vs Tondela?
Leixoes vs Tondela (Segunda Liga) kicks off on Sunday 16 August 2026 at 15:30 (West Africa Time) at Estádio do Mar.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
