Value bet: Lusitânia Lourosa to win @ 2.58 – our chance 42% vs 39% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultLusitânia Lourosa to win ✓42% · @2.58
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗58% · @1.80
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓76% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✓11% · fair 9.09
Amarante vs Lusitânia Lourosa preview and prediction
The match
Amarante host Lusitânia Lourosa in the Segunda Liga on Sunday 16 August, with kick-off at 14:00 (WAT) at Amarante Stadium. Amarante are 14th with 9 points from 10 games (in the bottom half), while Lusitânia Lourosa sit 4th on 19 points (in the top four).
Form guide
Amarante's last 5: LLLWD Most recently they lost to Tondela 1–2 away. They average 1.2 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Lusitânia Lourosa's last 5: WLLDD Most recently they beat FC Porto B 2–0 at home. They average 1.3 scored and 1.5 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.2 for Amarante and 1.3 for Lusitânia Lourosa. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 45%, both teams to score at 58%.
Value angle: Lusitânia Lourosa to win at 2.58 – 42% on our numbers against 39% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 76% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Amarante 1–1 Lusitânia Lourosa. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Amarante34%fair 2.90 · @2.54
Draw24%fair 4.18 · @3.25
Lusitânia Lourosa42%fair 2.40 · @2.58
2.48Expected goals
1.17Amarante xG
1.32Lusitânia Lourosa xG
58%Both score
45%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
0–111%
1–010%
1–28%
0–08%
2–17%
From our goals model: Amarante 1.2 – 1.3 Lusitânia Lourosa expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Lusitânia Lourosa to win✓
42%
2.40
2.58 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.31
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
58%
1.72
1.80
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
70%
1.43
1.35
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
55%
1.82
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
76%
1.32
1.25
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
44%
2.26
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Lusitânia Lourosa / FT Lusitânia Lourosa✓
23%
4.31
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✓
11%
9.09
–
Form
Amarante – last 6
LLLWDW
8 Aug
@ Tondela
1–2
L
1 Aug
@ Moreirense
0–2
L
22 Jul
@ Chaves
1–2
L
10 May
vs União Santarém
1–0
W
1 May
@ Trofense
0–0
D
19 Apr
@ Mafra
4–1
W
1.2Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Lusitânia Lourosa – last 6
WLLDDW
10 Aug
vs FC Porto B
2–0
W
1 Aug
@ Paredes
2–4
L
1 Aug
vs Arouca
0–2
L
29 Jul
@ Leça
0–0
D
29 Jul
vs FC Porto B
3–3
D
25 Jul
vs Academico Viseu
1–0
W
1.3Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Amarante and Lusitânia Lourosa.
What is the prediction for Amarante vs Lusitânia Lourosa?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Amarante vs Lusitânia Lourosa?
On our numbers Amarante have a 34% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Lusitânia Lourosa 42%.
How many goals will there be in Amarante vs Lusitânia Lourosa?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Amarante vs Lusitânia Lourosa?
Our predicted score is Amarante 1–1 Lusitânia Lourosa, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Amarante vs Lusitânia Lourosa?
Amarante vs Lusitânia Lourosa (Segunda Liga) kicks off on Sunday 16 August 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time) at Amarante Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
