Very strong pick · fair odds 1.17 · bookmaker 1.25 · Lost ✗
10/10Rating
1.25Odds
1
Value bet: Penafiel to win @ 1.88 – our chance 65% vs 53% implied by the price (edge +22%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultPenafiel to win ✗65% · @1.88
Double chancePenafiel or draw ✗85% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗53% · @1.77
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓73% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗14% · fair 7.18
Penafiel vs Portimonense preview and prediction
The match
Penafiel host Portimonense in the Segunda Liga on Saturday 8 August, with kick-off at 14:00 (WAT) at Estadio Municipal 25 de Abril. Penafiel are 1st with 22 points from 10 games (top of the table), while Portimonense sit 10th on 14 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
Penafiel's last 5: LDLLW Most recently they lost to Leganes 0–2 at home. They average 1.5 scored and 1.8 conceded.
Portimonense's last 5: LLWWL Most recently they lost to Nottingham Forest 1–2 at home. They average 1.3 scored and 1.8 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.9 for Penafiel and 0.7 for Portimonense. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 48%, both teams to score at 53%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Value angle: Penafiel to win at 1.88 – 65% on our numbers against 53% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Penafiel or draw – a 85% chance at odds of 1.25, above our fair price of 1.17, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Penafiel 1–0 Portimonense. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Penafiel65%fair 1.54 · @1.88
Draw20%fair 4.96 · @3.40
Portimonense15%fair 6.77 · @3.80
2.59Expected goals
1.86Penafiel xG
0.73Portimonense xG
53%Both score
48%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–014%
2–013%
1–110%
2–19%
3–08%
0–07%
From our goals model: Penafiel 1.9 – 0.7 Portimonense expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Penafiel to win✗
65%
1.54
1.88 ▲
Double chance
Penafiel or draw✗
85%
1.17
1.25 ▲
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
53%
1.90
1.77
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
72%
1.38
1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
52%
1.92
1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
73%
1.37
1.28
Half-time result
Penafiel ahead at half-time✗
45%
2.20
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Penafiel / FT Penafiel✗
41%
2.45
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
14%
7.18
–
Form
Penafiel – last 6
LDLLWW
24 Jul
vs Leganes
0–2
L
18 Jul
@ Famalicao
0–0
D
17 May
@ Pacos Ferreira
1–2
L
4 May
@ Torreense
2–3
L
11 Apr
vs Academico Viseu
4–3
W
4 Apr
@ Sporting CP B
2–1
W
1.5Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Portimonense – last 6
LLWWLW
31 Jul
vs Nottingham Forest
1–2
L
15 Jul
vs Rio Ave
0–3
L
17 May
vs Farense
1–0
W
3 May
vs Chaves
3–2
W
25 Apr
@ Leixoes
0–2
L
19 Apr
vs Lusitânia Lourosa
3–2
W
1.3Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Penafiel and Portimonense.
What is the prediction for Penafiel vs Portimonense?
Our pick is Penafiel or draw with a 85% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Penafiel vs Portimonense?
On our numbers Penafiel have a 65% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Portimonense 15%.
How many goals will there be in Penafiel vs Portimonense?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 48% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Penafiel vs Portimonense?
Our predicted score is Penafiel 1–0 Portimonense, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Penafiel vs Portimonense?
Penafiel vs Portimonense (Segunda Liga) kicks off on Saturday 8 August 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Municipal 25 de Abril.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
